capital management

The Bubble Talk is Back, But This Story Has Further to Run

The Bubble Talk is Back, But This Story Has Further to Run

The chatter is unmistakable. From trading floors to investment committee meetings, "bubble" has officially entered the market dialogue. The latest Schwab survey reveals that 57% of professional traders now view the market as overvalued. Meanwhile, prominent economists are drawing comparisons to the dot-com era, with Apollo Global Management's chief economist Torsten Slok noting that today's top stocks are “more overvalued” then their counterparts were in the 1990s.

Balance of Risks

Balance of Risks

For the first time in nine months, the Federal Reserve approved a quarter-point interest rate cut on Wednesday, bringing the Fed funds target range between 4.0 and 4.25%. The rate cut was widely expected, resulting in minimal market reaction after the announcement—unsurprising, given the strong rally in stocks and bonds leading up to this week.

Puzzle Pieces

Puzzle Pieces

This week has left many wondering how all the puzzle pieces fit together. On one hand, we have a clear weakening in the labor market, yet the stock market continues to soar to new all-time highs. Toss in some mixed inflation reports and that may leave some questioning if a few of the puzzle pieces are missing from the box.

Northwest Financial Experts Urge Homeowners to Proactively “Disaster Proof” Their Finances—Lessons Learned from Wildfire Experiences

Northwest Financial Experts Urge Homeowners to Proactively “Disaster Proof” Their Finances—Lessons Learned from Wildfire Experiences

PORTLAND, Ore.—(Businesswire)—Homeowners in areas around the U.S. continue to face the threat of natural disasters as wildfire, flood, and hurricane seasons converge in late summer and fall months. Beyond immediate safety concerns, the financial aftermath of natural disasters can be devastating.

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

Just as the three most important considerations for real estate investors are “Location, Location, Location,” the three things both markets and policymakers were focused on this week were “Jobs, Jobs, and more Jobs” … or fewer jobs as it turned out, with today’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Fed Independence Under the Microscope: What It Means for Bond Investors

Fed Independence Under the Microscope: What It Means for Bond Investors

The Federal Reserve’s independence is a cornerstone of U.S. financial stability. It underpins confidence in Treasury markets, the world’s deepest and most liquid, and supports the U.S. dollar’s role as the global reserve currency. Recent actions and statements from the White House, however, have stirred a debate over that independence and prompted a reasonable investor question: Will markets react to politics, or will they continue to focus on the data?

All You Can Eat: Data Deluge Edition

All You Can Eat: Data Deluge Edition

This week delivered an unprecedented convergence of critical market-moving events that tested investors' ability to parse signal from noise.

Warning Shots

Warning Shots

This week's economic data painted a picture of an economy caught between competing forces, with implications that are keeping Fed officials on edge. While June's CPI report showed inflation ticking up to 2.7% annually from May's 2.4%, there were encouraging signs beneath the surface, with vehicle prices falling during the month and shelter prices rising at their slowest pace in years.

Goldilocks Yields

Goldilocks Yields

Bond yields, and specifically yields on U.S. treasuries, are a great barometer for the overall U.S. economy and to a lesser extent, the global economy. Chief among all the debt issued by the U.S. government is the 10-year Treasury, whose yield is one of the most closely followed indicators in global financial markets.

Red, White and Blue Labor Market? Hardly.

Red, White and Blue Labor Market? Hardly.

Summer is in full swing, and many will observe the 4th of July this weekend with family, friends and traditions. For those planning to celebrate, I hope the holiday weekend is filled with pleasant weather and unforgettable memories with the people who matter most. However, for many, the week isn’t over yet.

Unpacking America's Debt: Who Really Holds the Bag?

Unpacking America's Debt: Who Really Holds the Bag?

There’s a common belief that most of the U.S. national debt is owned by foreign countries—especially China. But the reality is far more nuanced, with most of the debt being held domestically. As of December 2024, the total U.S. national debt stood at $36.1 trillion. That number includes two main parts: debt held by the public and intragovernmental holdings. The public portion—about $28.8 trillion—is what really matters when we talk about who owns U.S. debt. The rest, around $7.3 trillion, is money the government owes itself, such as social security and Medicare trust funds. 

All Eyes on Employment

All Eyes on Employment

Last weekend, I caught up with a childhood friend working as a graphic designer. While discussing our respective careers and industries, he mentioned the difficulty his colleagues were having in finding jobs in their field, an experience that seemed to contradict the positive U.S. employment statistics reported earlier in the year. This week, both he and investors anxiously awaited the release of several related reports, hoping to gain a better understanding of the current state of the labor market and its recent shifts.

May Flowers

May Flowers

As the final days of May unfold, American consumers are feeling notably more optimistic. After several months of declining sentiment, the latest consumer confidence data showed a strong rebound from an almost five-year low, with the increase largely attributed to easing trade tensions.

Data vs. Drama: The Real Economic Story

Data vs. Drama: The Real Economic Story

After a 20% rebound from its April 7 lows, the S&P 500 is positive for the year, marking one of the most significant short-term comebacks in market history. The market rallied on Monday following weekend news about tariff negotiations with China. In a complete reversal from the earlier “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, the punitive 145% tariff rate on Chinese goods was reduced to 30%, with a 90-day pause implemented. In response, China lowered its retaliatory tariff rate on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%.

Muni Moment: Why Yields Are Attractive Now

Muni Moment: Why Yields Are Attractive Now

For investors seeking income and a source of portfolio stability, municipal bonds present a compelling option. These debt instruments are issued by cities, states and local governments across the United States to finance public projects such as schools, roads and utilities.

A Break From Tariff Talk

A Break From Tariff Talk

This week, for the first time in months, tariff news was overshadowed by economic and earnings headlines. Those of us in the business of analyzing the market and economy can agree that this was a refreshing shift.

Independence Day

Independence Day

Independence Day may evoke visions of fireworks and parades or perhaps memories of the 1996 summer blockbuster movie where aliens hovered over The White House. While no actual fireworks or aliens were involved, this past Tuesday was probably the most pressing “Independence Day” for our country’s central bank as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s political independence was put to the test.

Shock and Awe

Shock and Awe

This week, the presidential inauguration and subsequent flurry of executive orders left investors deciphering what is ‘signal’ versus ‘noise’. Fortunately, in the background, public companies have started reporting fourth quarter earnings and reveal expectations for the year ahead.

Tariff Tensions

Tariff  Tensions

After last November’s election, it was widely expected that tariffs would become a significant focus in 2025. Initially, markets downplayed these concerns, viewing them primarily as negotiating tools rather than serious economic threats. 

Pick Your Poison

Pick Your Poison

Equity markets surged on Monday only to come under pressure to close the week at a 1.5% loss. Absent a rally greater than 4% on Monday, this will be the first quarter since the summer of 2023 when investors have lost money in domestic stocks.