Coming into this week, investors were focused on two items: the release of delayed employment data and Nvidia’s earnings announcement.
Reversal
Unfolding Medicare’s Income-Related Adjustment Amount (IRMAA) Surcharges
As the pace of life can slow down in the fall and winter seasons, so can we find ourselves noticing the finer details that surround us. These seasons invite reflection and intentionality, making them an ideal time to turn our attention to year-end financial planning.
Data Drama
I spent much of last Sunday with my father in his garage, servicing my car’s rear brakes. The job was supposed to be quick as we’d done it before without much trouble. Worn-out parts come off, new ones go on.
Navigating in a Data-Blind Economy
As November begins, markets find themselves navigating unprecedented territory. The government shutdown has now stretched to 38 days, the longest in U.S. history. While Washington remains gridlocked over healthcare subsidies and spending priorities, the Federal Reserve is operating in the dark at a moment when clarity is paramount.
Cash Incinerators vs. Cloud Comebacks
This past week offered a trifecta of market-moving headlines: the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates, the latest chapter in the U.S. - China trade saga and a flurry of earnings reports from the leaders in tech and AI.
Disrupt or Be Disrupted
The idea of an AI bubble has been the topic du jour among mainstream investment news channel commentators. It’s no surprise: AI has been the primary driver of the stock market’s rise for the third consecutive year.
Wealth Management Insights Video Fourth Quarter 2025
In this quarter’s Wealth Management Insights video, "Wrapping Up 2025," Samantha Pahlow, CTFA, AWMA®, discusses strategy and timing for charitable giving and which items to review ahead of year-end.
Brett Norris on KOIN Wallet Wednesday
Investment Strategy Fourth Quarter 2025
In this quarter’s investment strategy video, "Stalemate," Peter Jones, CFA, explores how hiring and firing have hit a standstill — but the economy hasn’t. AI investment, fiscal support, and a Fed pivot toward job growth are creating a complex but opportunity-rich environment for investors.
Examining the Risks in Private Credit
When a company needs a big loan to buy a competitor or fund a major project, they traditionally go to big banks or sell bonds on the public market. Private credit funds changed this process, allowing for more streamlined borrowing. Private credit funds act as the bank, lending money directly to companies in bespoke deals.
Making the Most of Your Finances Before Year End
As the year draws to a close, it's an opportune time to review your financial situation and ensure you meet year-end deadlines to maximize your financial benefits. Completing these year-end financial tasks can help you save on taxes, secure your retirement and prepare you for the year ahead.
Thresholds
This week, the Congressional Budget Office released its estimate of the federal government’s fiscal year 2025 budget deficit. Nine months ago, there were high expectations that policymakers would move to reduce the deficit spending we’ve seen over the last 25 years.
Shutdowns and Smokescreens
On Wednesday, Congress failed to reach an agreement to fund the government, resulting in the first shutdown since 2018. While news headlines are filled with political drama, the financial markets have told a different story.
Outlook and Insights Fourth Quarter 2025
Building Lifelong Relationships with Our Family Office
As we approach the close of 2025, we’re reminded of a significant milestone—welcoming our first Octavia Group client five years ago. During a recent strategy meeting, our team reflected on the evolution of our family office, sharing insights into our growth, expanding services, and future plans—all with the aim of consistently exceeding our clients’ expectations.
The Hidden Weight of Adjusted Gross Income in the OBBBA Era
The tax landscape for individuals has shifted once again with the passage of OBBBA. While
the legislation includes enhanced deductions and targeted tax relief, it also introduces several new income-based limitations that subtly yet significantly reshape tax efficiency.
The Ever-Evolving Landscape of Smart Charitable Giving
The tax act, adopted on July 4 of this year, extended or made permanent many personal income tax provisions and included significant changes for optimizing charitable giving strategies. The key changes to charitable income tax deductions for individuals that become effective in 2026 are highlighted below but must be considered in the broader context of other tax opportunities.
Wrapping Up 2025: Practical Steps for Year-End Financial Planning
As we enter the final stretch of the year, it’s a great time to set aside a few hours to review your financial picture and position yourself for a confident start to the new year.
Stuck in Neutral: Why the U.S. Job Market Is So Confusing Right Now
We’re caught in a strange economic limbo with the U.S. employment market. Large-scale layoffs and a climb in the unemployment rate that signals a recession has not materialized; but the robust hiring that signals a healthy economy has vanished. The result is a labor market completely stuck in neutral, and the official numbers we’ve relied on for decades are looking shakier than ever.
Stalemate
Over the course of the third quarter, the focus among investors, economists and the Fed itself shifted from tariff policy to jobs. We’ve arrived at a dynamic in the labor market that can best be described as a “stalemate.” Both hiring and firing rates sit at low levels. Businesses, uncertain about the future, are holding onto the employees they have, while simultaneously hesitating to bring on new staff. Top of mind is whether the frozen labor market will thaw through a resumption of hiring or whether we are in the early stages of an eventual rise in the rate of unemployment.