Aside from the three-week extension of a brittle ceasefire in the Middle East, the news this week was focused on SpaceX’s pre-IPO filings, Kevin Warsh’s Congressional testimony, and blowout earnings among semiconductor companies.
Silicon Surging
Fifty Years of Change, One Constant: Investing Through Innovation
Fifty years is a long time for a company to stay in business. For those in the technology industry, it’s an eternity. Entire categories have been born, scaled, and rendered obsolete in less than a decade.
Inflation Jumps in March, But the Underlying Story Hasn’t Changed
As expected, the March inflation report came in hot. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.9% month over month and 3.3% year over year - the largest monthly move in nearly four years.
What Lies Beneath
While headlines remain dominated by geopolitical developments and ongoing conflict abroad, a steady stream of economic data continues to provide valuable insight into the U.S. economy’s underlying health.
The Tortoise and The Hare
This week, capital markets’ behavior continued its recent adoption of a “Tortoise and the Hare”-style dynamic, with fast-moving geopolitical headlines driving short-term volatility, while underlying economic trends evolve more gradually.
Crude Signals
Rising oil prices, driven by the war in Iran, have reintroduced a familiar dynamic into financial markets. While the sharp increase in gas prices may be the most visible impact for most Americans, additional adjustments across currencies and interest rates have also been notable. The signal from oil has been clear, but the downstream effects remain much less so.
The Only Constant in Life is Change
Prior to the escalation of conflict in Iran, market attention was firmly focused on inflation, highlighted by two report releases this week: January’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI).
It Often Rhymes
Mark Twain allegedly coined the phrase, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” No doubt, the Middle East military escalation this past week rhymed with our history in the region. Previous conflicts of this nature have added volatility to markets without a long-term U.S. economic impact. However, since these events have an impact on the price of oil, assessing the impact in the short-term and long-term is key for our economic and portfolio outlook. Such moments validate our ongoing belief in a broad, diversified portfolio for clients.
Moving Past Peak Tariffs
Overshadowed by the ongoing selloff in perceived AI-disrupted industries, the legal landscape of U.S. trade policy changed significantly last Friday. In a 6-3 decision, the Supreme Court ruled that the administration cannot use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to unilaterally impose tariffs.
SaaSination or Selective Opportunity?
Over the last several weeks, pressure on software stocks has intensified as investors grapple with what some have dramatically labeled a coming “SaaSPocalypse.”
A Good Reminder to Diversify
It was an exceptionally busy week for economic data, and by and large, the news this week was very favorable. After a period of weakness in the second half of 2025, the labor market appears to be finding its footing.
Jobs on Hold, Software Sold
It is a common refrain that markets hate uncertainty, and this week has delivered plenty. On both the labor front and in technology, the movers in the capital markets were driven by a combination of delayed data, softening employment signals and a sharp repricing in the stock prices of software and services companies.
Rates on Hold, Leadership in Focus
This week, financial markets were shaped by a convergence of monetary policy continuity and rising attention to Federal Reserve leadership. At its January meeting, the Federal Reserve voted to hold interest rates steady, marking the first pause since it began easing policy in mid-2025.
The Housing Math Problem
Investors returned from the long weekend to something more jarring than the usual post-holiday lull: a burst of geopolitical theater that triggered the sharpest pullback in the S&P 500 since last October.
The Robots Have Landed
Not too long ago, robots were mostly considered science fiction and far-fetched possibilities. Now the future that once felt distant showed up at the Consumer Electronic Show (CES) this year in Las Vegas, where companies gather to showcase their latest inventions.
Three in a Row — Is 2026 the Market’s Fourth Encore?
2025 is officially in the books, marking the third consecutive year of double-digit gains for the market. It wasn’t just a good year for returns — it was an eventful one, too. At the start of 2025, our optimism wasn’t based solely on sentiment; the data supported it.
Why Unhappy Consumers Keep Spending
As New Year’s celebrations wrap up and 2026 begins, the U.S. economy is sending signals that are difficult to reconcile: consumer sentiment is deeply negative, yet spending remains resilient.
Closing the Book on 2025
This week, investors and capital markets received a dose of holiday cheer as major U.S. stock indices recorded back-to-back highs in the two days before Christmas market closures. Stronger-than-expected economic growth during the summer helped drive the momentum, offsetting fresh evidence that consumers are growing more uncertain about their economic futures.
Fringe Finance: Stablecoins
At Ferguson Wellman, the alternative assets desk (my primary role) tends to be where the uncommon client questions land. Alternative assets, in our world, are basically anything that is not a publicly traded stock or bond, and our clients come to us with terrific questions that often sit in this "other" bucket.
‘Tis the Season for Holiday Spending
The holiday season is in full swing, and there’s a certain energy in the air that feels unmistakable. Calendars fill with gatherings, homes glow a little brighter and routines soften as people pause to reflect on the year behind them. The gift lists and travel plans often involve higher spending and reveal deeper feelings among consumers.