We’re caught in a strange economic limbo with the U.S. employment market. Large-scale layoffs and a climb in the unemployment rate that signals a recession has not materialized; but the robust hiring that signals a healthy economy has vanished. The result is a labor market completely stuck in neutral, and the official numbers we’ve relied on for decades are looking shakier than ever. 

Over the course of the third quarter, the focus among investors, economists and the Fed itself shifted from tariff policy to jobs. We’ve arrived at a dynamic in the labor market that can best be described as a “stalemate.” Both hiring and firing rates sit at low levels. Businesses, uncertain about the future, are holding onto the employees they have, while simultaneously hesitating to bring on new staff. Top of mind is whether the frozen labor market will thaw through a resumption of hiring or whether we are in the early stages of an eventual rise in the rate of unemployment. 

In this quarter’s investment strategy video, "Actions Over Words," George Hosfield, CFA, delves into the disconnect between consumer sentiment and actual economic behavior. Despite low consumer confidence, retail sales are soaring and the labor market is stabilizing.

The mood among American consumers, by many accounts, is grim. This sense of uncertainty and anxiety has been pervasive in 2025.

With the S&P 500 tumbling 18% in April from its February high, and subsequently rallying back to an all-time high, the second quarter was a wild rollercoaster for investors.

Tariffs have long been used globally to support local industries by incentivizing citizens to purchase domestically made products. At the turn of the 20th century, tariffs were the primary source of tax revenue for many nations. Today, funding comes from income, payroll and corporate taxes. In the U.S., tariffs accounted for approximately 90% of federal income until the Civil War. After World War II, tariffs fell out of favor in developed economies because they often led to reduced trade, higher prices and retaliation from abroad.

While market volatility has been highly-elevated in recent weeks with the almost daily change in the proposed tariff landscape, in this quarter’s investment strategy video we endeavor to provide a measured perspective on what lies ahead and how navigate the psychology of investing.