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After serving two full terms as chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell enters 2026 with just three Fed meetings remaining under his leadership. Beginning in June, a new Fed Chair will preside over setting monetary policy for our country. While the list of potential nominees has been fluid, a critical step in this process is that the nominee, and likely new chair, gains the confidence of a wide variety of stakeholders.
Investors had to contend with plenty of noise in 2025. Tariff uncertainty disrupted markets, the longest government shutdown in U.S. history delayed economic data and the Fed resumed its easing cycle.
In this quarter’s investment strategy video, "Stalemate," Peter Jones, CFA, explores how hiring and firing have hit a standstill — but the economy hasn’t. AI investment, fiscal support, and a Fed pivot toward job growth are creating a complex but opportunity-rich environment for investors.
We’re caught in a strange economic limbo with the U.S. employment market. Large-scale layoffs and a climb in the unemployment rate that signals a recession has not materialized; but the robust hiring that signals a healthy economy has vanished. The result is a labor market completely stuck in neutral, and the official numbers we’ve relied on for decades are looking shakier than ever.
Over the course of the third quarter, the focus among investors, economists and the Fed itself shifted from tariff policy to jobs. We’ve arrived at a dynamic in the labor market that can best be described as a “stalemate.” Both hiring and firing rates sit at low levels. Businesses, uncertain about the future, are holding onto the employees they have, while simultaneously hesitating to bring on new staff. Top of mind is whether the frozen labor market will thaw through a resumption of hiring or whether we are in the early stages of an eventual rise in the rate of unemployment.
In this quarter’s investment strategy video, "Actions Over Words," George Hosfield, CFA, delves into the disconnect between consumer sentiment and actual economic behavior. Despite low consumer confidence, retail sales are soaring and the labor market is stabilizing.
The mood among American consumers, by many accounts, is grim. This sense of uncertainty and anxiety has been pervasive in 2025.
