Software stocks have experienced a selloff of over 30% since October 2025, largely driven by uncertainty around the competitive risks of artificial intelligence (AI). While AI will have a significant impact on software companies, the more relevant question for investors is understanding if it is an opportunity or a risk for individual businesses.

In the first quarter, several market-disrupting events took place: the Supreme Court struck down International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs, war began in the Middle East, oil prices rose over 70%, expectations for two Federal Reserve rate cuts evaporated and AI substitution fears triggered a 20% selloff in software stocks, the S&P 500’s second-largest industry. While none of these are positive developments for the capital markets, the fact that the S&P 500 is only down 4% year-to-date suggests the economic fallout may be much less than the current headlines suggest (as of March 31, 2026).

Annual presentation from Ferguson Wellman sharing our views for the year regarding the global economy and capital markets, as well as a planning update from our wealth management team. The program originally aired on Wednesday, February 4, 2026. 

After serving two full terms as chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell enters 2026 with just three Fed meetings remaining under his leadership. Beginning in June, a new Fed Chair will preside over setting monetary policy for our country. While the list of potential nominees has been fluid, a critical step in this process is that the nominee, and likely new chair, gains the confidence of a wide variety of stakeholders. 

Investors had to contend with plenty of noise in 2025. Tariff uncertainty disrupted markets, the longest government shutdown in U.S. history delayed economic data and the Fed resumed its easing cycle. 

In this quarter’s investment strategy video, "Stalemate," Peter Jones, CFA, explores how hiring and firing have hit a standstill — but the economy hasn’t. AI investment, fiscal support, and a Fed pivot toward job growth are creating a complex but opportunity-rich environment for investors.

We’re caught in a strange economic limbo with the U.S. employment market. Large-scale layoffs and a climb in the unemployment rate that signals a recession has not materialized; but the robust hiring that signals a healthy economy has vanished. The result is a labor market completely stuck in neutral, and the official numbers we’ve relied on for decades are looking shakier than ever.