There’s a common belief that most of the U.S. national debt is owned by foreign countries—especially China. But the reality is far more nuanced, with most of the debt being held domestically. As of December 2024, the total U.S. national debt stood at $36.1 trillion. That number includes two main parts: debt held by the public and intragovernmental holdings. The public portion—about $28.8 trillion—is what really matters when we talk about who owns U.S. debt. The rest, around $7.3 trillion, is money the government owes itself, such as social security and Medicare trust funds. 

The mood among American consumers, by many accounts, is grim. This sense of uncertainty and anxiety has intensified throughout 2025. Both military and trade wars continue to simmer as political divisions widen. The cumulative weight of inflation, coupled with concerns about the U.S. fiscal situation and interest rates that remain higher than their pre-COVID levels, all contribute to a collective unease. The alarmist tone of much of the media only serves to amplify these anxieties, creating a climate where apprehension seems to be the default setting. 

Last weekend, I caught up with a childhood friend working as a graphic designer. While discussing our respective careers and industries, he mentioned the difficulty his colleagues were having in finding jobs in their field, an experience that seemed to contradict the positive U.S. employment statistics reported earlier in the year. This week, both he and investors anxiously awaited the release of several related reports, hoping to gain a better understanding of the current state of the labor market and its recent shifts.

As the final days of May unfold, American consumers are feeling notably more optimistic. After several months of declining sentiment, the latest consumer confidence data showed a strong rebound from an almost five-year low, with the increase largely attributed to easing trade tensions.

Over the last few weeks investors have put upward pressure on bond yields for a variety of reasons. First, the U.S. treasury lost its last AAA rating when Moody’s downgraded United States debt to AA.

After a 20% rebound from its April 7 lows, the S&P 500 is positive for the year, marking one of the most significant short-term comebacks in market history. The market rallied on Monday following weekend news about tariff negotiations with China. In a complete reversal from the earlier “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, the punitive 145% tariff rate on Chinese goods was reduced to 30%, with a 90-day pause implemented. In response, China lowered its retaliatory tariff rate on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%.

For investors seeking income and a source of portfolio stability, municipal bonds present a compelling option. These debt instruments are issued by cities, states and local governments across the United States to finance public projects such as schools, roads and utilities.

This week, for the first time in months, tariff news was overshadowed by economic and earnings headlines. Those of us in the business of analyzing the market and economy can agree that this was a refreshing shift.

Independence Day may evoke visions of fireworks and parades or perhaps memories of the 1996 summer blockbuster movie where aliens hovered over The White House. While no actual fireworks or aliens were involved, this past Tuesday was probably the most pressing “Independence Day” for our country’s central bank as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s political independence was put to the test.

As February draws to a close, so does our first quarter outlook season. We enjoy hitting the road and sharing our 2025 Investment Outlook with clients and colleagues, and are grateful for the chance to come together and look forward to what's ahead.