As New Year’s celebrations wrap up and 2026 begins, the U.S. economy is sending signals that are difficult to reconcile: consumer sentiment is deeply negative, yet spending remains resilient.

This week, investors and capital markets received a dose of holiday cheer as major U.S. stock indices recorded back-to-back highs in the two days before Christmas market closures.  Stronger-than-expected economic growth during the summer helped drive the momentum, offsetting fresh evidence that consumers are growing more uncertain about their economic futures.

At Ferguson Wellman, the alternative assets desk (my primary role) tends to be where the uncommon client questions land. Alternative assets, in our world, are basically anything that is not a publicly traded stock or bond, and our clients come to us with terrific questions that often sit in this "other" bucket.

The holiday season is in full swing, and there’s a certain energy in the air that feels unmistakable. Calendars fill with gatherings, homes glow a little brighter and routines soften as people pause to reflect on the year behind them. The gift lists and travel plans often involve higher spending and reveal deeper feelings among consumers.

As we look ahead to the Federal Reserve’s December 10 policy meeting, markets are pricing in a greater than 90% chance of a .25% cut in the Fed Funds rate. As my colleague Blaine Dickason wrote last week, the Fed is laser-focused on the jobs market. While this week’s labor market data points to a cooling trend, it doesn’t suggest a contraction.

Yesterday marked Jerome Powell’s last Thanksgiving as Federal Reserve Chair. While he might have much to be thankful for, this year, as he enters the final months of his chairmanship, a unified Federal Reserve is not one of them. With the next Fed meeting and a possible interest rate cut in less than two weeks, we wanted to highlight the dynamics and implications of several transitions occurring at our country’s central bank.

Coming into this week, investors were focused on two items: the release of delayed employment data and Nvidia’s earnings announcement.  

I spent much of last Sunday with my father in his garage, servicing my car’s rear brakes. The job was supposed to be quick as we’d done it before without much trouble. Worn-out parts come off, new ones go on.

As November begins, markets find themselves navigating unprecedented territory. The government shutdown has now stretched to 38 days, the longest in U.S. history. While Washington remains gridlocked over healthcare subsidies and spending priorities, the Federal Reserve is operating in the dark at a moment when clarity is paramount.

This past week offered a trifecta of market-moving headlines: the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates, the latest chapter in the U.S. - China trade saga and a flurry of earnings reports from the leaders in tech and AI.