George Hosfield, CFA, discusses Ferguson Wellman's quarterly strategy titled, "Inflation's Flame Flickers," which addresses the narrow market leadership, the impact of higher interest rates on inflation and how assets are priced at this stage of the economic cycle.
George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the firm's quarterly strategy titled "Stalemate," which highlights the Fed's ongoing battle to tame inflation along with our views on the health of the banking industry and capital market expectations for the balance of the year.
Director and Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the Fed raising interest rates, peaking inflation and our view on equities and volatility across all asset classes in our Investment Strategy titled, “Balancing Act.”
We’re caught in a strange economic limbo with the U.S. employment market. Large-scale layoffs and a climb in the unemployment rate that signals a recession has not materialized; but the robust hiring that signals a healthy economy has vanished. The result is a labor market completely stuck in neutral, and the official numbers we’ve relied on for decades are looking shakier than ever.
Over the course of the third quarter, the focus among investors, economists and the Fed itself shifted from tariff policy to jobs. We’ve arrived at a dynamic in the labor market that can best be described as a “stalemate.” Both hiring and firing rates sit at low levels. Businesses, uncertain about the future, are holding onto the employees they have, while simultaneously hesitating to bring on new staff. Top of mind is whether the frozen labor market will thaw through a resumption of hiring or whether we are in the early stages of an eventual rise in the rate of unemployment.
The chatter is unmistakable. From trading floors to investment committee meetings, "bubble" has officially entered the market dialogue. The latest Schwab survey reveals that 57% of professional traders now view the market as overvalued. Meanwhile, prominent economists are drawing comparisons to the dot-com era, with Apollo Global Management's chief economist Torsten Slok noting that today's top stocks are “more overvalued” then their counterparts were in the 1990s.
PORTLAND, Ore.—(Businesswire)—Homeowners in areas around the U.S. continue to face the threat of natural disasters as wildfire, flood, and hurricane seasons converge in late summer and fall months. Beyond immediate safety concerns, the financial aftermath of natural disasters can be devastating.
Just as the three most important considerations for real estate investors are “Location, Location, Location,” the three things both markets and policymakers were focused on this week were “Jobs, Jobs, and more Jobs” … or fewer jobs as it turned out, with today’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
The Federal Reserve’s independence is a cornerstone of U.S. financial stability. It underpins confidence in Treasury markets, the world’s deepest and most liquid, and supports the U.S. dollar’s role as the global reserve currency. Recent actions and statements from the White House, however, have stirred a debate over that independence and prompted a reasonable investor question: Will markets react to politics, or will they continue to focus on the data?
Each year, central bankers, finance ministers and academics gather in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for an economic policy symposium (or boondoggle, whichever you prefer).
Umbrella insurance is one of the most commonly misunderstood and overlooked types of insurance coverage available. This form of liability coverage sits on top of your existing auto, homeowners or watercraft policies and is designed as an additional layer of protection from large claims that exceed your standard policy limits.
This week delivered an unprecedented convergence of critical market-moving events that tested investors' ability to parse signal from noise.
Despite a somewhat quiet week from an economic data perspective, capital markets were anything but. A steady drip of news about home sales, second-quarter company earnings updates and new trade deals provided investors with plenty to digest ahead of next week’s much-busier economic news cycle.
The mood among American consumers, by many accounts, is grim. This sense of uncertainty and anxiety has been pervasive in 2025.
With the S&P 500 tumbling 18% in April from its February high, and subsequently rallying back to an all-time high, the second quarter was a wild rollercoaster for investors.
There’s a common belief that most of the U.S. national debt is owned by foreign countries—especially China. But the reality is far more nuanced, with most of the debt being held domestically. As of December 2024, the total U.S. national debt stood at $36.1 trillion. That number includes two main parts: debt held by the public and intragovernmental holdings. The public portion—about $28.8 trillion—is what really matters when we talk about who owns U.S. debt. The rest, around $7.3 trillion, is money the government owes itself, such as social security and Medicare trust funds.
Estate tax has been a highly debated topic in Congress for years. With the passing of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017, and the ongoing discussions on extending certain provisions, estate tax is again on the short list for debate.
After a 20% rebound from its April 7 lows, the S&P 500 is positive for the year, marking one of the most significant short-term comebacks in market history. The market rallied on Monday following weekend news about tariff negotiations with China. In a complete reversal from the earlier “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, the punitive 145% tariff rate on Chinese goods was reduced to 30%, with a 90-day pause implemented. In response, China lowered its retaliatory tariff rate on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%.
This week, for the first time in months, tariff news was overshadowed by economic and earnings headlines. Those of us in the business of analyzing the market and economy can agree that this was a refreshing shift.
One of the sayings most often heard in our firm is, “It’s not about timing the market”—it’s about time in the market. With this long-term view in mind, one might ask why we spend so much time preparing our Outlook each year when the messaging has been consistent over the years. Simply put, each year brings new challenges for investors, but our commitment to clients is to stay focused on the long term.
According to the latest report by Cerulli & Associates, $124 trillion is expected to change hands by 2048. Just under 15% is expected to be given to charity and the remaining balance will go to heirs.
When it comes to saving for college, 529 accounts are a popular choice. These tax-advantaged savings plans are designed to help families set aside funds for future education expenses. You can choose from various investment options and enjoy tax-free growth and withdrawals for qualified education costs.
After last November’s election, it was widely expected that tariffs would become a significant focus in 2025. Initially, markets downplayed these concerns, viewing them primarily as negotiating tools rather than serious economic threats.
