George Hosfield, CFA, discusses Ferguson Wellman's quarterly strategy titled, "Inflation's Flame Flickers," which addresses the narrow market leadership, the impact of higher interest rates on inflation and how assets are priced at this stage of the economic cycle.
George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the firm's quarterly strategy titled "Stalemate," which highlights the Fed's ongoing battle to tame inflation along with our views on the health of the banking industry and capital market expectations for the balance of the year.
Director and Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the Fed raising interest rates, peaking inflation and our view on equities and volatility across all asset classes in our Investment Strategy titled, “Balancing Act.”
This week has left many wondering how all the puzzle pieces fit together. On one hand, we have a clear weakening in the labor market, yet the stock market continues to soar to new all-time highs. Toss in some mixed inflation reports and that may leave some questioning if a few of the puzzle pieces are missing from the box.
PORTLAND, Ore.—(Businesswire)—Homeowners in areas around the U.S. continue to face the threat of natural disasters as wildfire, flood, and hurricane seasons converge in late summer and fall months. Beyond immediate safety concerns, the financial aftermath of natural disasters can be devastating.
Just as the three most important considerations for real estate investors are “Location, Location, Location,” the three things both markets and policymakers were focused on this week were “Jobs, Jobs, and more Jobs” … or fewer jobs as it turned out, with today’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
The Federal Reserve’s independence is a cornerstone of U.S. financial stability. It underpins confidence in Treasury markets, the world’s deepest and most liquid, and supports the U.S. dollar’s role as the global reserve currency. Recent actions and statements from the White House, however, have stirred a debate over that independence and prompted a reasonable investor question: Will markets react to politics, or will they continue to focus on the data?
This week's economic data painted a picture of an economy caught between competing forces, with implications that are keeping Fed officials on edge. While June's CPI report showed inflation ticking up to 2.7% annually from May's 2.4%, there were encouraging signs beneath the surface, with vehicle prices falling during the month and shelter prices rising at their slowest pace in years.
Bond yields, and specifically yields on U.S. treasuries, are a great barometer for the overall U.S. economy and to a lesser extent, the global economy. Chief among all the debt issued by the U.S. government is the 10-year Treasury, whose yield is one of the most closely followed indicators in global financial markets.
There’s a common belief that most of the U.S. national debt is owned by foreign countries—especially China. But the reality is far more nuanced, with most of the debt being held domestically. As of December 2024, the total U.S. national debt stood at $36.1 trillion. That number includes two main parts: debt held by the public and intragovernmental holdings. The public portion—about $28.8 trillion—is what really matters when we talk about who owns U.S. debt. The rest, around $7.3 trillion, is money the government owes itself, such as social security and Medicare trust funds.
Last weekend, I caught up with a childhood friend working as a graphic designer. While discussing our respective careers and industries, he mentioned the difficulty his colleagues were having in finding jobs in their field, an experience that seemed to contradict the positive U.S. employment statistics reported earlier in the year. This week, both he and investors anxiously awaited the release of several related reports, hoping to gain a better understanding of the current state of the labor market and its recent shifts.
As the final days of May unfold, American consumers are feeling notably more optimistic. After several months of declining sentiment, the latest consumer confidence data showed a strong rebound from an almost five-year low, with the increase largely attributed to easing trade tensions.
After a 20% rebound from its April 7 lows, the S&P 500 is positive for the year, marking one of the most significant short-term comebacks in market history. The market rallied on Monday following weekend news about tariff negotiations with China. In a complete reversal from the earlier “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, the punitive 145% tariff rate on Chinese goods was reduced to 30%, with a 90-day pause implemented. In response, China lowered its retaliatory tariff rate on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%.
This week, for the first time in months, tariff news was overshadowed by economic and earnings headlines. Those of us in the business of analyzing the market and economy can agree that this was a refreshing shift.
Independence Day may evoke visions of fireworks and parades or perhaps memories of the 1996 summer blockbuster movie where aliens hovered over The White House. While no actual fireworks or aliens were involved, this past Tuesday was probably the most pressing “Independence Day” for our country’s central bank as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s political independence was put to the test.
This week, the presidential inauguration and subsequent flurry of executive orders left investors deciphering what is ‘signal’ versus ‘noise’. Fortunately, in the background, public companies have started reporting fourth quarter earnings and reveal expectations for the year ahead.
After last November’s election, it was widely expected that tariffs would become a significant focus in 2025. Initially, markets downplayed these concerns, viewing them primarily as negotiating tools rather than serious economic threats.
Equity markets surged on Monday only to come under pressure to close the week at a 1.5% loss. Absent a rally greater than 4% on Monday, this will be the first quarter since the summer of 2023 when investors have lost money in domestic stocks.
Something is happening that hasn’t occurred in a very long time – international stocks are outperforming the U.S. markets. This shift marks a significant departure from the long-standing dominance of U.S. equities, which have historically been driven by robust earnings growth and technological innovation.
This week, we sent this communication to all Ferguson Wellman and West Bearing clients in response to heightened market volatility. We felt that this message was also appropriate to reiterate for our weekly blog.
After last November's presidential election, it was widely understood that tariffs would be on the agenda for 2025. Early this year, however, markets largely shrugged off these concerns, viewing tariff threats primarily as a negotiating tactic rather than a serious economic risk.
Over the last week, the tariff rhetoric hit a heightened level with the threat of 25% tariffs on products coming in from Mexico and Canada, as well as 10% on China.
This week, the equity market had a “shoot first, ask questions later” response to news surrounding DeepSeek, a Chinese artificial intelligence startup company that claimed to achieve ChatGPT-level performance at a fraction of the cost. This news sent a shockwave through the technology sector, sparking a frenzy of speculation and questions about AI innovation.
