George Hosfield, CFA, discusses Ferguson Wellman's quarterly strategy titled, "Inflation's Flame Flickers," which addresses the narrow market leadership, the impact of higher interest rates on inflation and how assets are priced at this stage of the economic cycle.
George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the firm's quarterly strategy titled "Stalemate," which highlights the Fed's ongoing battle to tame inflation along with our views on the health of the banking industry and capital market expectations for the balance of the year.
Director and Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the Fed raising interest rates, peaking inflation and our view on equities and volatility across all asset classes in our Investment Strategy titled, “Balancing Act.”
As the final days of May unfold, American consumers are feeling notably more optimistic. After several months of declining sentiment, the latest consumer confidence data showed a strong rebound from an almost five-year low, with the increase largely attributed to easing trade tensions.
After a 20% rebound from its April 7 lows, the S&P 500 is positive for the year, marking one of the most significant short-term comebacks in market history. The market rallied on Monday following weekend news about tariff negotiations with China. In a complete reversal from the earlier “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, the punitive 145% tariff rate on Chinese goods was reduced to 30%, with a 90-day pause implemented. In response, China lowered its retaliatory tariff rate on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%.
This week, for the first time in months, tariff news was overshadowed by economic and earnings headlines. Those of us in the business of analyzing the market and economy can agree that this was a refreshing shift.
Independence Day may evoke visions of fireworks and parades or perhaps memories of the 1996 summer blockbuster movie where aliens hovered over The White House. While no actual fireworks or aliens were involved, this past Tuesday was probably the most pressing “Independence Day” for our country’s central bank as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s political independence was put to the test.
This week, the presidential inauguration and subsequent flurry of executive orders left investors deciphering what is ‘signal’ versus ‘noise’. Fortunately, in the background, public companies have started reporting fourth quarter earnings and reveal expectations for the year ahead.
After last November’s election, it was widely expected that tariffs would become a significant focus in 2025. Initially, markets downplayed these concerns, viewing them primarily as negotiating tools rather than serious economic threats.
Equity markets surged on Monday only to come under pressure to close the week at a 1.5% loss. Absent a rally greater than 4% on Monday, this will be the first quarter since the summer of 2023 when investors have lost money in domestic stocks.
Something is happening that hasn’t occurred in a very long time – international stocks are outperforming the U.S. markets. This shift marks a significant departure from the long-standing dominance of U.S. equities, which have historically been driven by robust earnings growth and technological innovation.
This week, we sent this communication to all Ferguson Wellman and West Bearing clients in response to heightened market volatility. We felt that this message was also appropriate to reiterate for our weekly blog.
After last November's presidential election, it was widely understood that tariffs would be on the agenda for 2025. Early this year, however, markets largely shrugged off these concerns, viewing tariff threats primarily as a negotiating tactic rather than a serious economic risk.
This week, Portland residents braved the cold to venture outside and watch snow blanket the city. In contrast, January's inflation data was seemingly the opposite, rising higher month-over-month and year-over-year. While the snowfall might have been a pleasant surprise for some Oregonians, this inflation data was anything but for most investors and consumers.
Over the last week, the tariff rhetoric hit a heightened level with the threat of 25% tariffs on products coming in from Mexico and Canada, as well as 10% on China.
This week, the equity market had a “shoot first, ask questions later” response to news surrounding DeepSeek, a Chinese artificial intelligence startup company that claimed to achieve ChatGPT-level performance at a fraction of the cost. This news sent a shockwave through the technology sector, sparking a frenzy of speculation and questions about AI innovation.
This week, the presidential inauguration and subsequent flurry of executive orders left investors deciphering what is ‘signal’ versus ‘noise’. Fortunately, in the background, public companies have started reporting fourth quarter earnings and reveal expectations for the year ahead.
In our Investment Outlook 2025 events, we will share our thoughts on the real estate market and the opportunities ahead. While the commercial real estate sector appeared to hit bottom early last year, it showed a positive trend in the latter half, with core real estate values increasing 6% per the Green Street Commercial Property Index (Green Street CPPI). As mentioned in previous publications, we favor opportunities in industrial warehouses, apartments and data centers, which saw values increase last year. However, our publications have not as deeply explored one segment of commercial real estate (CRE): office space.
When my family gathers around the holidays, we enjoy catching up on Jeopardy episodes with our two daughters. As they are both educators, it can be difficult for my wife and me to keep up, but it can also get pretty competitive. In one episode, I had the upper hand as the category was the “Magnificent Seven.” Luckily, this didn’t refer to the movies but to the seven stocks dominating the stock market. In investing circles, the term “Magnificent Seven,” or Mag-7, is well known, and I was surprised it had become recognizable enough to be a Jeopardy category. Unfortunately, while I was the first to “buzz in” and answer correctly in this category, I wasn’t as fortunate the rest of the game.
On Wednesday, in a widely expected move, the Federal Reserve cut the policy interest rate by 0.25% to a new range of 4.25% - 4.50%. This brings cumulative interest rate cuts to 1% for calendar year 2024.
Casia Chappell, CFP®, CPWA®, discusses the benefits and workings of irrevocable life insurance trusts (ILITs), highlighting their role in estate planning by providing asset protection, estate tax mitigation and efficient wealth transfer.
While standing in line at a local grocery store this week, waiting to purchase food for yesterday’s Thanksgiving meal, it was interesting to hear other shoppers mention the cost of their groceries to the store’s clerks.
A banana duct taped to a wall sold for $6.2 million dollars this week to a cryptocurrency founder. With bitcoin nearing $100,000 and up more than 40% in November alone, bullish sentiment may be reaching levels of excess and froth in certain corners of the capital markets.
