George Hosfield, CFA, discusses Ferguson Wellman's quarterly strategy titled, "Inflation's Flame Flickers," which addresses the narrow market leadership, the impact of higher interest rates on inflation and how assets are priced at this stage of the economic cycle.
George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the firm's quarterly strategy titled "Stalemate," which highlights the Fed's ongoing battle to tame inflation along with our views on the health of the banking industry and capital market expectations for the balance of the year.
Director and Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the Fed raising interest rates, peaking inflation and our view on equities and volatility across all asset classes in our Investment Strategy titled, “Balancing Act.”
This week, the Congressional Budget Office released its estimate of the federal government’s fiscal year 2025 budget deficit. Nine months ago, there were high expectations that policymakers would move to reduce the deficit spending we’ve seen over the last 25 years.
As we approach the close of 2025, we’re reminded of a significant milestone—welcoming our first Octavia Group client five years ago. During a recent strategy meeting, our team reflected on the evolution of our family office, sharing insights into our growth, expanding services, and future plans—all with the aim of consistently exceeding our clients’ expectations.
The passage of the SECURE Act in 2019 and SECURE 2.0 Act in 2022 ushered in sweeping changes for taxpayers regarding retirement account distributions. These changes, including a significant modification to how certain designated beneficiaries must distribute inherited retirement accounts, are crucial for anyone possessing or inheriting a retirement account to understand.
As part of the modernization of the federal government and with a goal of improving efficiency and reducing fraud, the president signed an executive order on March 25 to phase out the use of paper checks by the U.S. government.
This week has left many wondering how all the puzzle pieces fit together. On one hand, we have a clear weakening in the labor market, yet the stock market continues to soar to new all-time highs. Toss in some mixed inflation reports and that may leave some questioning if a few of the puzzle pieces are missing from the box.
The word unprecedented has appeared often in headlines this year — and for good reason. Breaking news has been in no short supply, and this week brought another wave of significant government and business activity.
Over the last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistic (BLS) released several data points highlighting some weakness in the jobs market.
This week's economic data painted a picture of an economy caught between competing forces, with implications that are keeping Fed officials on edge. While June's CPI report showed inflation ticking up to 2.7% annually from May's 2.4%, there were encouraging signs beneath the surface, with vehicle prices falling during the month and shelter prices rising at their slowest pace in years.
Bond yields, and specifically yields on U.S. treasuries, are a great barometer for the overall U.S. economy and to a lesser extent, the global economy. Chief among all the debt issued by the U.S. government is the 10-year Treasury, whose yield is one of the most closely followed indicators in global financial markets.
In 1975, the founders of Ferguson Wellman saw an opportunity to manage money for workers, setting the stage for a 50-year, evolving relationship with our institutional clients.
Last weekend, I caught up with a childhood friend working as a graphic designer. While discussing our respective careers and industries, he mentioned the difficulty his colleagues were having in finding jobs in their field, an experience that seemed to contradict the positive U.S. employment statistics reported earlier in the year. This week, both he and investors anxiously awaited the release of several related reports, hoping to gain a better understanding of the current state of the labor market and its recent shifts.
As the final days of May unfold, American consumers are feeling notably more optimistic. After several months of declining sentiment, the latest consumer confidence data showed a strong rebound from an almost five-year low, with the increase largely attributed to easing trade tensions.
Over the last few weeks investors have put upward pressure on bond yields for a variety of reasons. First, the U.S. treasury lost its last AAA rating when Moody’s downgraded United States debt to AA.
For investors seeking income and a source of portfolio stability, municipal bonds present a compelling option. These debt instruments are issued by cities, states and local governments across the United States to finance public projects such as schools, roads and utilities.
Independence Day may evoke visions of fireworks and parades or perhaps memories of the 1996 summer blockbuster movie where aliens hovered over The White House. While no actual fireworks or aliens were involved, this past Tuesday was probably the most pressing “Independence Day” for our country’s central bank as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s political independence was put to the test.
This week, equity market volatility continued due to last week’s announcement of global tariffs. Investors, attempting to handicap the potential impacts on the U.S. economy and corporate profits, caused a bond market rally by selling risky assets (stocks) and buying safe assets (government bonds). However, something changed over the weekend. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield started the week at 3.9% and, by Tuesday evening, had reached 4.5%.
This week, the presidential inauguration and subsequent flurry of executive orders left investors deciphering what is ‘signal’ versus ‘noise’. Fortunately, in the background, public companies have started reporting fourth quarter earnings and reveal expectations for the year ahead.
