The word unprecedented has appeared often in headlines this year — and for good reason. Breaking news has been in no short supply, and this week brought another wave of significant government and business activity.
From AI to CPI
Changes
Over the last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistic (BLS) released several data points highlighting some weakness in the jobs market.
Warning Shots
This week's economic data painted a picture of an economy caught between competing forces, with implications that are keeping Fed officials on edge. While June's CPI report showed inflation ticking up to 2.7% annually from May's 2.4%, there were encouraging signs beneath the surface, with vehicle prices falling during the month and shelter prices rising at their slowest pace in years.
Goldilocks Yields
Bond yields, and specifically yields on U.S. treasuries, are a great barometer for the overall U.S. economy and to a lesser extent, the global economy. Chief among all the debt issued by the U.S. government is the 10-year Treasury, whose yield is one of the most closely followed indicators in global financial markets.
Outlook and Insight Third Quarter 2025
A Long, Evolving History with Institutional Clients
In 1975, the founders of Ferguson Wellman saw an opportunity to manage money for workers, setting the stage for a 50-year, evolving relationship with our institutional clients.
All Eyes on Employment
Last weekend, I caught up with a childhood friend working as a graphic designer. While discussing our respective careers and industries, he mentioned the difficulty his colleagues were having in finding jobs in their field, an experience that seemed to contradict the positive U.S. employment statistics reported earlier in the year. This week, both he and investors anxiously awaited the release of several related reports, hoping to gain a better understanding of the current state of the labor market and its recent shifts.
May Flowers
As the final days of May unfold, American consumers are feeling notably more optimistic. After several months of declining sentiment, the latest consumer confidence data showed a strong rebound from an almost five-year low, with the increase largely attributed to easing trade tensions.
Big, Beautiful Bond Yields
Over the last few weeks investors have put upward pressure on bond yields for a variety of reasons. First, the U.S. treasury lost its last AAA rating when Moody’s downgraded United States debt to AA.
Muni Moment: Why Yields Are Attractive Now
For investors seeking income and a source of portfolio stability, municipal bonds present a compelling option. These debt instruments are issued by cities, states and local governments across the United States to finance public projects such as schools, roads and utilities.
Independence Day
Independence Day may evoke visions of fireworks and parades or perhaps memories of the 1996 summer blockbuster movie where aliens hovered over The White House. While no actual fireworks or aliens were involved, this past Tuesday was probably the most pressing “Independence Day” for our country’s central bank as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s political independence was put to the test.
Return of the Vigilantes
This week, equity market volatility continued due to last week’s announcement of global tariffs. Investors, attempting to handicap the potential impacts on the U.S. economy and corporate profits, caused a bond market rally by selling risky assets (stocks) and buying safe assets (government bonds). However, something changed over the weekend. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield started the week at 3.9% and, by Tuesday evening, had reached 4.5%.
Shock and Awe
This week, the presidential inauguration and subsequent flurry of executive orders left investors deciphering what is ‘signal’ versus ‘noise’. Fortunately, in the background, public companies have started reporting fourth quarter earnings and reveal expectations for the year ahead.
Outlook and Insights Second Quarter 2025
2024 Annual Report
Tariff Tantrum
Over the last week, the tariff rhetoric hit a heightened level with the threat of 25% tariffs on products coming in from Mexico and Canada, as well as 10% on China.
Hold Your Fire
This week, the equity market had a “shoot first, ask questions later” response to news surrounding DeepSeek, a Chinese artificial intelligence startup company that claimed to achieve ChatGPT-level performance at a fraction of the cost. This news sent a shockwave through the technology sector, sparking a frenzy of speculation and questions about AI innovation.
Signal or Noise
This week, the presidential inauguration and subsequent flurry of executive orders left investors deciphering what is ‘signal’ versus ‘noise’. Fortunately, in the background, public companies have started reporting fourth quarter earnings and reveal expectations for the year ahead.
Outlook 2025
We present our Outlook 2025 publication titled “Lessons Learned,” in which we discuss the resilience of the U.S. economy in 2024, highlighting the significant contributions of major technology companies to profit growth and providing insights on asset allocation strategies for 2025. Additionally, our team of analysts provide a look-back on each of the firm’s strategies and a primer on the environment for each in the year ahead.
Wealth Management Insights First Quarter 2025
We present our first quarter 2025 issue of Wealth Management Insights titled “Tax Planning in an Ever-Changing Environment.” In it, Wealth Management Chair Samantha Pahlow, CTFA, AWMA®, discusses strategies for increasing tax efficiency in client portfolios, including tax diversification, tax-efficient investing, and tax-efficient withdrawal strategies. Tyler Conroy, CFP®, CPWA®, provides insights into tax-efficient retirement withdrawals, emphasizing the importance of planning the sequence and timing of withdrawals to manage taxes and extend the longevity of assets. Scott Christianson, CFP®, explains the importance of tax diversification in investment portfolios, detailing various account types and strategies to manage tax risk and provide flexibility for tax-efficient distributions in the future.