In the first quarter, several market-disrupting events took place: the Supreme Court struck down International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs, war began in the Middle East, oil prices rose over 70%, expectations for two Federal Reserve rate cuts evaporated and AI substitution fears triggered a 20% selloff in software stocks, the S&P 500’s second-largest industry. While none of these are positive developments for the capital markets, the fact that the S&P 500 is only down 4% year-to-date suggests the economic fallout may be much less than the current headlines suggest (as of March 31, 2026).
