George Hosfield, CFA, discusses Ferguson Wellman's quarterly strategy titled, "Inflation's Flame Flickers," which addresses the narrow market leadership, the impact of higher interest rates on inflation and how assets are priced at this stage of the economic cycle.
George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the firm's quarterly strategy titled "Stalemate," which highlights the Fed's ongoing battle to tame inflation along with our views on the health of the banking industry and capital market expectations for the balance of the year.
Director and Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the Fed raising interest rates, peaking inflation and our view on equities and volatility across all asset classes in our Investment Strategy titled, “Balancing Act.”
Rising oil prices, driven by the war in Iran, have reintroduced a familiar dynamic into financial markets. While the sharp increase in gas prices may be the most visible impact for most Americans, additional adjustments across currencies and interest rates have also been notable. The signal from oil has been clear, but the downstream effects remain much less so.
As we wrap up 2023, we always like to look back on the year in the markets and put the last 12 months in perspective. In December 2022, the S&P 500 had just finished an 8% rally from the October lows. With stocks still down close to 20% for the year, the outlook for 2023 looked bleak as forecasts by economists were overwhelmingly skewed toward recession.
On Tuesday this week, inflation data as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) for the month of March was reported at 2.6 percent. This year-over-year inflation reading was significantly higher than it had been trending over the past few months.
This week, the Federal Reserve made big news when it reduced the federal funds rate by 0.25 percent, its second cut this year. While any Fed action always dominates the headlines, the interest rate reduction was expected and fully priced into the market. Having raised federal funds a quarter point just last December, it has been a rather dramatic change of monetary policy in which the Fed has now cut rates twice this year.
