Principal and Head of Fixed Income, Brad Houle, CFA, discusses the math at work in fixed income investing and the relationship between bonds and interest rates.
Bond Math
Daibes Higgins on KOIN Wallet Wednesday
Krystal Daibes Higgins, CFA, appeared on KOIN News Wallet Wednesday on July 27, 2022, and discussed the recent Fed Hike, inflation and gas prices.
A Year Like No Other
The recent intensity of economic and earnings data matched the temperatures outside this week. In absolute terms, inflation remains too hot and while there is some evidence of moderation, the Federal Reserve doubled down on its commitment to return inflation to its 2.0% long-term target, suggesting further interest rate hikes through the end of this year.
Recording: Mid-Year Economic Outlook Webinar with Portland and Puget Sound Business Journals
Ferguson Wellman presents its mid-year investment outlook in partnership with the Portland and Puget Sound Business Journals. Originally aired July 13, 2022.
Dry Powder
U.S. markets have begun the third quarter with positive returns, erasing some of the losses that occurred in the first half of the year. Specifically, the market has recouped about one-fourth of the year-to-date loss in stock prices. It remains to be seen how long this rally will last, but there have been a couple of positive developments, despite a palpable slowing in economic growth.
Making the Most of All Your Benefits - Wealth Management Insights Video
Wealth Management Chair Mary Lago, CFP®, CTFA, discusses strategies to maximize the most of your benefits from private insurance options to Social Security and Medicare.
Social Security Claiming Fundamentals
For those with many years before retirement, social security appears to be a straightforward arrangement: once you retire, you will receive a monthly check for the rest of your life. However, there are several complexities to be aware of as you approach retirement. For example, the timing of when you begin to take benefits can greatly alter the size of your benefits. The options you choose are impactful, and importantly, are mostly irrevocable. Carefully reviewing your options beforehand can ensure that you put yourself in the best position to maximize benefits.
Rearview Mirror
Years ago, a market technician compared the markets to a car windshield. In this analogy, an investor is in the driver’s seat looking out for future obstacles or opportunities in the “road” ahead, such as discounting future earnings, economic data or signs of a recession. However, as any good driver knows, the rearview mirror is also in view, giving us a glimpse of what recently passed.
Bonds Acting Like Bonds
Today the employment data for the month of June was released and was stronger than analysts’ expectations. Nonfarm payrolls increased 372,000 in the month of June, well above the estimate of 265,000. In addition, average hourly earnings growth moderated on a month-to-month basis, which should help the inflationary pressures in the economy.
Third Quarter 2022 Wealth Management Insights Publication: Making the Most of All Your Benefits
Read our third quarter 2022 Wealth Management Insights publication in which Mary Lago, CFP®, CTFA, Charissa Anderson, CFP®, CDFA®, and Casia Chappell, CFP®, CPWA® share their thoughts on life insurance ownership, social security spousal benefits and long-term care insurance.
Third Quarter 2022 Market Letter: Balancing Act
Read our Market Letter publication for the third quarter 2022 titled, Balancing Act, in which George Hosfield, CFA, Dean Dordevic and Brad Houle, CFA, share our thoughts on inflation, interest rates, recession risk and how to position portfolios in this environment.
Third Quarter 2022 Investment Strategy Video: Balancing Act
Director and Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the Fed raising interest rates, peaking inflation and our view on equities and volatility across all asset classes in our Investment Strategy titled, “Balancing Act.”
Paranoid
This year, investors have wrestled with several paradoxical headlines: rising inflation, a tighter Fed, possible recession, a strong labor market and a healthy consumer. Unfortunately, the paranoia caused by these reports continues as markets wrapped up the first six months of 2022 with the S&P 500 down 20%, resulting in the worst start of the year since 1970.
Norris Interviewed on Boise Public Radio
Jason Norris, CFA, was interviewed on Boise Public Radio about the Idaho economy and recent market activity.
The Calm after the Storm
While it was a relatively quiet week of macroeconomic news, investors are still busy making sense of the inflation and interest rate paradox: that is, inflation stoking recession fears, but also rising rates to combat inflation also stoking recession fears.
Party Like It's 1994
Earlier this week, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate to 1.75%, an increase of 0.75% from the previous rate. This increase, the largest since 1994, was considered a possibility, albeit one the market hadn’t fully discounted.
Too Hot to Handle
Markets sold off this week, and dramatically on Friday, as new inflation data showed price increases reaccelerated in May. This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is the most well-known measure of inflation, increased 1.0% in the month of May and increased 8.6% compared to the year-ago period. This number marks a new 41-year high for inflation.
Have Yields Peaked?
Paul Volcker assumed the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve in August of 1979 and within a year, had raised the target federal funds rate to an eye-popping 20%. This painful but necessary action broke the back of inflation which had run rampant for the prior decade.
Shifting Demand
As new parents, my wife and I have been experiencing the ongoing formula shortage firsthand as we prepare for our little one to start daycare in June. The search for formula reminds me of the early days of the pandemic when life turned into a competitive “treasure hunt” due to supply constraints and a drastic change in consumer demand.
529 Plans: Common Misconceptions
Casia Chappell, CFP®, CPWA®, discusses 529 college savings plans and their details that oftentimes confuse savers and students and how to best utilize these plans.