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Our Investment Views
Emilie Ma
Investment Strategy Video: Inflation's Flame ...

George Hosfield, CFA, discusses Ferguson Wellman's quarterly strategy titled, "Inflation's Flame Flickers," which addresses the narrow market leadership, the impact of higher interest rates on inflation and how assets are priced at this stage of the economic cycle.

Investment Strategy Video: Inflation's Flame Flickers
Our Investment Views
Guest User
Investment Strategy Video: Stalemate

George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the firm's quarterly strategy titled "Stalemate," which highlights the Fed's ongoing battle to tame inflation along with our views on the health of the banking industry and capital market expectations for the balance of the year.

Investment Strategy Video: Stalemate
Our Investment Views
Guest User
Third Quarter 2022 Investment Strategy Video: ...

Director and Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the Fed raising interest rates, peaking inflation and our view on equities and volatility across all asset classes in our Investment Strategy titled, “Balancing Act.”

Third Quarter 2022 Investment Strategy Video: Balancing Act
Annual Report
Mary Faulkner
2021 Annual Report

2021 Annual Report

2021 Annual Report
Wealth Management
Guest User
First Quarter 2022 Wealth Management Insights ...

Mary Lago, CFP®, CTFA, discusses the theme for the first quarter of 2022, “Valuing the Resources of Time and Money.”

First Quarter 2022 Wealth Management Insights Video: Valuing the Resources of Time and Money

Weekly Market Makers

The Funambulist Fed

The Funambulist Fed

This year has been anything but straightforward for investors, and the most recent Fed minutes are prolonging this state of confusion. While we have seen some reduced inflation pressure in the last several weeks, the Fed minutes point out that “risks to inflation were weighted to the upside,” citing factors such as further supply chain disruptions, continued geopolitical turmoil and persistent real wage growth. For investors, the focus continues to surround the pace of Fed rate hikes for the remainder of the year.

Inflation Redux

The last time I wrote the blog was April 14 and inflation data was the topic du jour. Serendipitously, the July inflation announcement was the major market event this week. So, to keep me honest, let us revisit some items from the April post.

When Good News is Bad News

When Good News is Bad News

It’s always a strange time in the market when good economic data is treated as bad news. As investors, we can’t help but feel good about the jobs report today, even if it means the Fed will keep aggressively raising short-term interest rates in the coming months.

A Year Like No Other

A Year Like No Other

The recent intensity of economic and earnings data matched the temperatures outside this week. In absolute terms, inflation remains too hot and while there is some evidence of moderation, the Federal Reserve doubled down on its commitment to return inflation to its 2.0% long-term target, suggesting further interest rate hikes through the end of this year.

Dry Powder

Dry Powder

U.S. markets have begun the third quarter with positive returns, erasing some of the losses that occurred in the first half of the year. Specifically, the market has recouped about one-fourth of the year-to-date loss in stock prices. It remains to be seen how long this rally will last, but there have been a couple of positive developments, despite a palpable slowing in economic growth.

Rearview Mirror

Rearview Mirror

Years ago, a market technician compared the markets to a car windshield. In this analogy, an investor is in the driver’s seat looking out for future obstacles or opportunities in the “road” ahead, such as discounting future earnings, economic data or signs of a recession. However, as any good driver knows, the rearview mirror is also in view, giving us a glimpse of what recently passed.

Bonds Acting Like Bonds

Bonds Acting Like Bonds

Today the employment data for the month of June was released and was stronger than analysts’ expectations. Nonfarm payrolls increased 372,000 in the month of June, well above the estimate of 265,000. In addition, average hourly earnings growth moderated on a month-to-month basis, which should help the inflationary pressures in the economy.

Paranoid

Paranoid

This year, investors have wrestled with several paradoxical headlines: rising inflation, a tighter Fed, possible recession, a strong labor market and a healthy consumer. Unfortunately, the paranoia caused by these reports continues as markets wrapped up the first six months of 2022 with the S&P 500 down 20%, resulting in the worst start of the year since 1970.

The Calm after the Storm

The Calm after the Storm

While it was a relatively quiet week of macroeconomic news, investors are still busy making sense of the inflation and interest rate paradox: that is, inflation stoking recession fears, but also rising rates to combat inflation also stoking recession fears.

Party Like It's 1994

Party Like It's 1994

Earlier this week, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate to 1.75%, an increase of 0.75% from the previous rate. This increase, the largest since 1994, was considered a possibility, albeit one the market hadn’t fully discounted.

Too Hot to Handle

Too Hot to Handle

Markets sold off this week, and dramatically on Friday, as new inflation data showed price increases reaccelerated in May. This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is the most well-known measure of inflation, increased 1.0% in the month of May and increased 8.6% compared to the year-ago period. This number marks a new 41-year high for inflation.

Have Yields Peaked?

Have Yields Peaked?

Paul Volcker assumed the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve in August of 1979 and within a year, had raised the target federal funds rate to an eye-popping 20%. This painful but necessary action broke the back of inflation which had run rampant for the prior decade.

Shifting Demand

Shifting Demand

As new parents, my wife and I have been experiencing the ongoing formula shortage firsthand as we prepare for our little one to start daycare in June. The search for formula reminds me of the early days of the pandemic when life turned into a competitive “treasure hunt” due to supply constraints and a drastic change in consumer demand.

The Correction Deepens

The Correction Deepens

Over the past week the S&P 500 declined nearly 3% on persistent fears of inflation exacerbated by negative earnings reports from Walmart and Target, both of which were impacted by unexpected cost inflation. For the year-to-date, the S&P 500 has declined more than 17%. The good news from the week is that bonds have started to act more like bonds due to declining interest rates and a volatile equities market.

Tug of War

Tug of War

Investors buffeted by the ongoing correction in stocks and bonds could be forgiven for asking this question. The Fed’s aggressive half a percentage point increase in interest rates last week coupled with another report of elevated inflation earlier this week are serving to continue the turbulence investors have experienced so far this year.

Fear and Greed

Fear and Greed

Both fear and greed were on full display this week as the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate 50 basis points and announced that additional 50 basis point increases would be needed in the future. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the U.S. government would stop buying as many bonds on the open market in the coming months, effectively shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet and removing some liquidity from the system.

Mixed Reviews

Mixed Reviews

This week, there was a plethora of economic and company-specific news for investors to digest. Specifically, the release of first quarter U.S. GDP, reported quarterly earnings by major technology companies and the unanimous vote by Twitter’s board to approve Elon Musk’s offer to take the company private. In response to this news, the market declined 4%, with all of the weekly losses occurring Friday afternoon.

Patience Pays Off

Patience Pays Off

Our initial U.S. economic outlook has generally played out as expected this year: continued (albeit slower) economic growth, persistent inflation, interest rate hikes and increased market volatility. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was an unexpected significant development that further elevated market volatility and dampened the global economic outlook.

When It Rains It Pours

When It Rains It Pours

On Tuesday, inflation numbers came in hot across most components. According to the release of March inflation figures, consumer prices have risen by 8.5% over the past year and 1.24% month-over-month, a rate of increase not seen in more than 40 years.

Back to Work

Back to Work

On Monday, we welcomed all employees back to our office after over two years of work-from-home. As most companies might agree, finding a balance between remote and in-office work has been a challenge. However, being at the office with the entire company has been gratifying.