George Hosfield, CFA, discusses Ferguson Wellman's quarterly strategy titled, "Inflation's Flame Flickers," which addresses the narrow market leadership, the impact of higher interest rates on inflation and how assets are priced at this stage of the economic cycle.
George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the firm's quarterly strategy titled "Stalemate," which highlights the Fed's ongoing battle to tame inflation along with our views on the health of the banking industry and capital market expectations for the balance of the year.
Director and Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the Fed raising interest rates, peaking inflation and our view on equities and volatility across all asset classes in our Investment Strategy titled, “Balancing Act.”
After last November’s election, it was widely expected that tariffs would become a significant focus in 2025. Initially, markets downplayed these concerns, viewing them primarily as negotiating tools rather than serious economic threats.
Something is happening that hasn’t occurred in a very long time – international stocks are outperforming the U.S. markets. This shift marks a significant departure from the long-standing dominance of U.S. equities, which have historically been driven by robust earnings growth and technological innovation.
After last November's presidential election, it was widely understood that tariffs would be on the agenda for 2025. Early this year, however, markets largely shrugged off these concerns, viewing tariff threats primarily as a negotiating tactic rather than a serious economic risk.
In October 2022, the S&P 500 hit a low of 3,577, which was 25% lower than at the start of the year. The Federal Reserve had just started an aggressive interest rate hiking cycle and 100% of Wall Street economists were calling for a recession by 2023. We believed otherwise.
Over the last week, investors and market watchers were introduced to a relatively unknown economic indicator, the Sahm Rule. As highlighted by Google search data, interest in the indicator spiked last week.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of goods and services prices across the economy, and a popular gauge of inflation. The headline CPI rose 3.5% in March from a year earlier, which was higher than economists had forecast and an increase from February’s 3.2% reading. The Core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, also rose more than expected, with medical care and auto insurance boosting the non-housing service prices.
In a 1981 interview, a skeptical Todd Koeppel questioned 26-year-old Steve Jobs about the dangers of using computers and whether they would eventually be able to control humans (aside from current social media addiction, not yet). Jobs proceeded to explain that the personal computer is the “bicycle of the 21st century” and referred to a study that measured the locomotion efficiency of various species.
