George Hosfield, CFA, discusses Ferguson Wellman's quarterly strategy titled, "Inflation's Flame Flickers," which addresses the narrow market leadership, the impact of higher interest rates on inflation and how assets are priced at this stage of the economic cycle.
George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the firm's quarterly strategy titled "Stalemate," which highlights the Fed's ongoing battle to tame inflation along with our views on the health of the banking industry and capital market expectations for the balance of the year.
Director and Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the Fed raising interest rates, peaking inflation and our view on equities and volatility across all asset classes in our Investment Strategy titled, “Balancing Act.”
“American Ledger” is a 250-Year Financial Perspective from Ferguson Wellman’s investment and wealth management teams. With our country reflecting this summer on the Spirit of '76, our colleagues recount how 2026 economic themes have evolved from our founding days.
The second quarter officially ended this week. The main story of the quarter was the powerful snapback in markets after the correction at the onset of the Iran war. Geopolitical fears temporarily tested nerves, but rather than spiraling into a prolonged drawdown, equities quickly digested the anxieties and staged a ferocious recovery, with the S&P 500 returning 15.2%.
Summer motorists might soon be enjoying lower gas prices at the pump now that crude oil has slipped below the $73-per-barrel mark seen just before the Middle East conflict broke out earlier this year. However, consumers are facing a very different reality at the electronics store.
Capital markets responded positively on Monday to reports surrounding a new U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) aimed at ending the recent conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The agreement called for halting hostilities and beginning a new round of negotiations covering Iran's nuclear program, free passage of naval traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and broader regional security issues.
In 2026, we expect investment in artificial intelligence (AI) in the U.S. to nearly double. This will bring AI infrastructure spending to roughly $760 billion, with spending expected to exceed $1.0 trillion next year, eclipsing the total budget for the Defense Department.
Private credit has become one of the fastest growing segments of global capital markets. Once viewed as a niche alternative investment strategy, it has evolved into a significant source of financing for small and middle market companies.
After spending the last 36 years in Pioneer Tower, this week, we moved into our new Portland office location just two blocks away in Fox Tower. This comes with significantly different views, and while the view out our window has changed, the economic landscape and investing environment we work in took scant notice of our change of address.
Bond markets have sold off sharply in recent weeks as investors react to rising oil prices, renewed inflation concerns and growing global fiscal pressures. The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield recently moved above 5.1%, reaching levels not seen in more than two decades and reigniting concerns about the impact of higher rates on both stocks and bonds.
Over the last seven weeks, the historic upward trajectory of semiconductor stock prices has given some investors flashbacks to the “bubble peak” of 2000. While these comparisons make dramatic news headlines, they largely neglect the backdrop that fueled the events of nearly 30 years ago.
The numbers coming out of the first quarter earnings season were, by any historical standard, staggering. Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta, the four largest cloud and technology platforms, accounted for $650 to $700 billion in capital expenditures (capex) for 2026. That is nearly double what the same group spent in 2025, and larger than the GDP of most countries. The AI infrastructure buildout is no longer a promise; it is a fact inscribed in balance sheets.
The 152nd Kentucky Derby is being run this Saturday, and earnings reports are coming in like Secretariat in 1973. Roughly 60% of the S&P 500 companies have reported to date and results so far have been strong.
Aside from the three-week extension of a brittle ceasefire in the Middle East, the news this week was focused on SpaceX’s pre-IPO filings, Kevin Warsh’s Congressional testimony, and blowout earnings among semiconductor companies.
Fifty years is a long time for a company to stay in business. For those in the technology industry, it’s an eternity. Entire categories have been born, scaled, and rendered obsolete in less than a decade.
As expected, the March inflation report came in hot. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.9% month over month and 3.3% year over year - the largest monthly move in nearly four years.
While headlines remain dominated by geopolitical developments and ongoing conflict abroad, a steady stream of economic data continues to provide valuable insight into the U.S. economy’s underlying health.
This week, capital markets’ behavior continued its recent adoption of a “Tortoise and the Hare”-style dynamic, with fast-moving geopolitical headlines driving short-term volatility, while underlying economic trends evolve more gradually.
Rising oil prices, driven by the war in Iran, have reintroduced a familiar dynamic into financial markets. While the sharp increase in gas prices may be the most visible impact for most Americans, additional adjustments across currencies and interest rates have also been notable. The signal from oil has been clear, but the downstream effects remain much less so.
Prior to the escalation of conflict in Iran, market attention was firmly focused on inflation, highlighted by two report releases this week: January’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Mark Twain allegedly coined the phrase, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” No doubt, the Middle East military escalation this past week rhymed with our history in the region. Previous conflicts of this nature have added volatility to markets without a long-term U.S. economic impact. However, since these events have an impact on the price of oil, assessing the impact in the short-term and long-term is key for our economic and portfolio outlook. Such moments validate our ongoing belief in a broad, diversified portfolio for clients.
Overshadowed by the ongoing selloff in perceived AI-disrupted industries, the legal landscape of U.S. trade policy changed significantly last Friday. In a 6-3 decision, the Supreme Court ruled that the administration cannot use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to unilaterally impose tariffs.
