George Hosfield, CFA, discusses Ferguson Wellman's quarterly strategy titled, "Inflation's Flame Flickers," which addresses the narrow market leadership, the impact of higher interest rates on inflation and how assets are priced at this stage of the economic cycle.
George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the firm's quarterly strategy titled "Stalemate," which highlights the Fed's ongoing battle to tame inflation along with our views on the health of the banking industry and capital market expectations for the balance of the year.
Director and Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the Fed raising interest rates, peaking inflation and our view on equities and volatility across all asset classes in our Investment Strategy titled, “Balancing Act.”
Over the last seven weeks, the historic upward trajectory of semiconductor stock prices has given some investors flashbacks to the “bubble peak” of 2000. While these comparisons make dramatic news headlines, they largely neglect the backdrop that fueled the events of nearly 30 years ago.
The numbers coming out of the first quarter earnings season were, by any historical standard, staggering. Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta, the four largest cloud and technology platforms, accounted for $650 to $700 billion in capital expenditures (capex) for 2026. That is nearly double what the same group spent in 2025, and larger than the GDP of most countries. The AI infrastructure buildout is no longer a promise; it is a fact inscribed in balance sheets.
The 152nd Kentucky Derby is being run this Saturday, and earnings reports are coming in like Secretariat in 1973. Roughly 60% of the S&P 500 companies have reported to date and results so far have been strong.
Aside from the three-week extension of a brittle ceasefire in the Middle East, the news this week was focused on SpaceX’s pre-IPO filings, Kevin Warsh’s Congressional testimony, and blowout earnings among semiconductor companies.
Fifty years is a long time for a company to stay in business. For those in the technology industry, it’s an eternity. Entire categories have been born, scaled, and rendered obsolete in less than a decade.
As expected, the March inflation report came in hot. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.9% month over month and 3.3% year over year - the largest monthly move in nearly four years.
While headlines remain dominated by geopolitical developments and ongoing conflict abroad, a steady stream of economic data continues to provide valuable insight into the U.S. economy’s underlying health.
This week, capital markets’ behavior continued its recent adoption of a “Tortoise and the Hare”-style dynamic, with fast-moving geopolitical headlines driving short-term volatility, while underlying economic trends evolve more gradually.
Rising oil prices, driven by the war in Iran, have reintroduced a familiar dynamic into financial markets. While the sharp increase in gas prices may be the most visible impact for most Americans, additional adjustments across currencies and interest rates have also been notable. The signal from oil has been clear, but the downstream effects remain much less so.
Prior to the escalation of conflict in Iran, market attention was firmly focused on inflation, highlighted by two report releases this week: January’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Mark Twain allegedly coined the phrase, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” No doubt, the Middle East military escalation this past week rhymed with our history in the region. Previous conflicts of this nature have added volatility to markets without a long-term U.S. economic impact. However, since these events have an impact on the price of oil, assessing the impact in the short-term and long-term is key for our economic and portfolio outlook. Such moments validate our ongoing belief in a broad, diversified portfolio for clients.
Overshadowed by the ongoing selloff in perceived AI-disrupted industries, the legal landscape of U.S. trade policy changed significantly last Friday. In a 6-3 decision, the Supreme Court ruled that the administration cannot use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to unilaterally impose tariffs.
Over the last several weeks, pressure on software stocks has intensified as investors grapple with what some have dramatically labeled a coming “SaaSPocalypse.”
It was an exceptionally busy week for economic data, and by and large, the news this week was very favorable. After a period of weakness in the second half of 2025, the labor market appears to be finding its footing.
It is a common refrain that markets hate uncertainty, and this week has delivered plenty. On both the labor front and in technology, the movers in the capital markets were driven by a combination of delayed data, softening employment signals and a sharp repricing in the stock prices of software and services companies.
This week, financial markets were shaped by a convergence of monetary policy continuity and rising attention to Federal Reserve leadership. At its January meeting, the Federal Reserve voted to hold interest rates steady, marking the first pause since it began easing policy in mid-2025.
Investors returned from the long weekend to something more jarring than the usual post-holiday lull: a burst of geopolitical theater that triggered the sharpest pullback in the S&P 500 since last October.
Not too long ago, robots were mostly considered science fiction and far-fetched possibilities. Now the future that once felt distant showed up at the Consumer Electronic Show (CES) this year in Las Vegas, where companies gather to showcase their latest inventions.
2025 is officially in the books, marking the third consecutive year of double-digit gains for the market. It wasn’t just a good year for returns — it was an eventful one, too. At the start of 2025, our optimism wasn’t based solely on sentiment; the data supported it.
As New Year’s celebrations wrap up and 2026 begins, the U.S. economy is sending signals that are difficult to reconcile: consumer sentiment is deeply negative, yet spending remains resilient.
