by Jade Thomason
Vice President
Equity and Fixed Income Trading

While headlines remain dominated by geopolitical developments and ongoing conflict abroad, a steady stream of economic data continues to provide valuable insight into the U.S. economy’s underlying health. These reports, often receiving less attention during periods of global uncertainty, offer a more grounded perspective on consumer behavior, labor market trends and business activity. Taken together, recent releases suggest that the foundation of the economy remains intact and resilient.

Recent retail sales data indicate that the U.S. consumer remains a steady pillar of economic support. February spending rebounded modestly after a softer start to the year, suggesting households continue to engage despite ongoing uncertainty around inflation and interest rates. While some categories experienced uneven performance, the overall trend reflects a consumer base that is still participating in the economy at a healthy pace. This resilience is important, as consumer spending remains a key driver of growth, and current data does not point to a meaningful pullback in demand.

The latest ADP employment report points to continued job creation in the private sector, with gains modestly exceeding expectations. While important, the ADP employment report and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) non-farm payrolls can be different directionally. ADP measures private payroll data from its client base, while BLS conducts a broader survey covering both private and public employment. On Friday, the BLS will release the March jobs data, with economists broadly expecting a modest rebound in hiring, with payroll growth in the range of roughly 55,000–60,000 following February’s unexpected decline. A metric we closely follow is layoffs, which prove to be stable and in line historically.

Manufacturing activity showed further signs of improvement in March, with the ISM index reaching its highest level in well over a year and moving into expansion territory. Strength in new orders and production suggests that demand is firming and that the industrial side of the economy is regaining momentum after a prolonged period of softness. While challenges remain, including cost pressures and broader uncertainty, the recent data indicate that the sector is on a more stable footing and may contribute more meaningfully to growth in the months ahead.

Together, these data points reinforce a consistent theme: while uncertainty remains elevated, particularly on the geopolitical front, the domestic economy continues to demonstrate durability across key areas. For investors, this environment underscores the importance of maintaining a disciplined, long-term perspective. Periods of heightened headlines can often obscure the steady progress occurring beneath the surface, and current fundamentals suggest that the economy remains on a solid footing as it navigates an evolving landscape.

Takeaways for the Week:

In Trump’s address to the nation on Wednesday, he stated he intends to wind down U.S. operations “very shortly” and that the Strait of Hormuz “will open up naturally” after the Iran conflict
The stock market is closed on Friday for the Good Friday holiday

Disclosure

The views expressed represent the opinion of Ferguson Wellman. The views are subject to change and are not intended as a forecast or guarantee of future results. This material is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice and is not intended as an endorsement of any specific investment. Statements of future expectations, estimates, projections and other forward-looking statements are based on available information and Ferguson Wellman’s views as of the time of these statements. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Ferguson Wellman, Octavia Group and West Bearing do not provide tax, legal, insurance or medical advice. This material has been prepared for general educational purposes only and not as a substitute for qualified counsel who can determine how this information applies to you. We believe the information provided is from reliable sources but should not be assumed accurate or complete.

Please see additional disclosures.