by Jason Norris, CFA
Principal, Equity Research and Portfolio Management
Over the last several weeks, company layoffs have been in the headlines, specifically in the technology sector.
Source: trueup.io/layoffs
These headlines have resulted in plenty of questions and concerns about the slowing of the jobs market. While these layoffs negatively impact tech workers, when looking at the total labor market, American companies lay off roughly 1.7 million workers in any given month, according to the Department of Labor. Therefore, there is a natural churn in the market regularly.
When assessing the health of the economy, we look at several indicators, and one of the timely indicators is "weekly unemployment claims." This data series reports the number of individuals who have filed for unemployment benefits. Hence, it is a good measure to determine if laid-off workers have found other jobs. The chart below indicates "continuing unemployment claims," which should give us an idea if those individuals face difficulty finding another job.
Source: Federal Reserve
As seen above, claims have ticked up a bit; they are still close to historic lows, indicating that laid-off workers are returning to work within a reasonable time horizon.
Big Money
This weekend will likely be the biggest Super Bowl weekend on record for several reasons. First, a 30-second advertisement slot for the game costs a record $7.0 million, even when adjusted for inflation. Second, with the growth of online gambling, bets are expected to reach over $23 billion, up over 40% from a year ago. Finally, the viewership should reach 110 million people. The Super Bowl has a wide range of viewers, with many watching just for the advertisements. However, this year, the audience may expand with the arrival of the “Swifties” (Taylor Swift fans), as she will be in attendance and will likely receive plenty of airtime. New advertisers are being drawn to the expanded audience. It’s reported the cosmetic giant L’Oreal will be making its maiden voyage with a Super Bowl commercial, and Dove is returning to the game after an 18-year hiatus. Her impact on football this year has been meaningful. Analysts estimate that broader viewership due to her attendance at Kansas City Chiefs games has added over $300 million in “brand value” to the NFL.
Historically, the Super Bowl has been viewed as a market indicator. The theory goes that if the team from the American Football Conference wins, the stock market will decline, and if the National Football Conference wins, it will rally. For the first twelve Super Bowls, the indicator had 100% accurately predicted the winner. However, its reliability has declined since then and has been right only 72% of the time. In the last 20 years, it has been correct only 30% of the time. Therefore, if you are superstitious about investing (which we don’t advise), then… Go Niners!*
*The views or opinions represented in today’s blog as it relates to the San Francisco 49ers (“Niners”) are personal and belong solely to today’s blog author and do not represent those people, institutions or organizations that the author may or may not be associated with in professional or personal capacity, unless explicitly stated.
Takeaways for the Week
The S&P 500 finished the week up around 1%, breaking the 5,000-point level for the first time as economic and earning news continued to support growth
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury finished at its highest level for the year at 4.19% as investors reduce the likelihood of Fed rate cuts this March
77% of companies represented in the S&P 500 have reported earnings this quarter, and sales and earnings results have come ahead of estimates, resulting in 5% and 1% growth, respectively