The explosion of cryptocurrencies and their meteoric returns over the last several years is causing some investors FOMO (fear of missing out). While cryptocurrencies, mostly Bitcoin, are in the news every day, very few investors understand their potential and the technologies that enable them. Rather, many are attracted to the highly-publicized returns they have generated in a very short amount of time. This has created something of a flywheel effect -- some may call it a bubble -- in which more investors are chasing these returns, which then drives returns higher, which then attracts more investors.
The Strong Get Stronger
This week, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell announced that later this month the Fed will begin “tapering” its asset purchase program now that the economy has moved past the need for extraordinary stimulus. As a reminder, to combat the recessionary effects of the pandemic and stimulate the economy, the Fed reduced interest rates to 0% and reintroduced an asset purchase program to the tune of $120 billion per month. By any measure, this is a remarkably large stimulus program.
If You Build It, They Will Come
Last week while my wife was engaging in one of the favorite millennial pastimes of perusing Zillow.com, she blurted out, “Joe, come take a look at this!” At first, I didn’t believe what she was showing me. Our home, which we had purchased only a little more than a year ago, had appreciated a surprising amount according to the estimate.
Climbing the "Wall of Worry"
After declining close to 6% between September 3 and October 4, the stock market is back at all time highs. Once again, it appears the market is beginning to climb the proverbial “wall of worry.”
Not Your Father's Stagflation
Inflation continues to be in the news and is top of mind for clients. This week, the September Consumer Price Index was reported 5.4% over the previous year, an inflation number well above where it was reported prior to the COVID-19 crisis.
Where Did Everyone Go?
On Monday, Facebook experienced an outage across its platform of apps for nearly six hours, affecting billions of users. The network disruption reminds us how interwoven social media is into the fabric of the global economy and many of our personal lives.
Skating to Where the Puck Is Going
Our Director and CEO Emeritus Jim Rudd, has long been a fan of the Wayne Gretzky quote, “don’t skate to where the puck is, skate to where it is going.” While it important to keep an eye on current data, it is more important to understand current data in the context of where you think the puck, or the economy in this case, is going. Let’s look at what is currently going on in Washington and the economy, and where we expect they are going later this year and into 2022.
Changing Seasons
As autumn dawned this week, investors witnessed the first move by a developed market’s central bank to raise interest rates since the COVID-19 pandemic began. No, the Fed didn’t raise rates. Rather, it was Norway’s central bank that moved its short-term interest rate target off the zero bound, citing improved economic activity that no longer justifies such monetary policy accommodation.
Respect
Rolling Stone magazine released its top 500 songs of all time this week. While some may argue that the top ten is missing several classics, they did rank Aretha Franklin’s “Respect” as the best of all time. We feel this song is also timely as we believe the U.S. consumer deserves “a little respect”.
Laboring Along
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at last month’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium focused market participants on the labor market ‘speedometer’ that will determine how much and for how long our central bank will maintain its current stimulus measures. The Fed has set a high bar for achieving ‘substantial further progress’ towards full employment.
Just Keep Swimming ... Just Keep Swimming
In the Pixar classic Finding Nemo, the characters Dory and Marlin were hovering over a trench, the black unknown below, and they had just lost their last hope of finding Marlin’s son, Nemo.
Soundproof Markets
All eyes were fixated across several facets of policy this week: the U.S. military withdrawal and civilian evacuation in Afghanistan, the much-anticipated bargaining in Congress to pass the budget resolution and lastly Fed Chair Powell’s comments regarding the plans for removing the extraordinary accommodation put in place during the pandemic-induced recession.
The Song Remains the Same
Recent uncertainty due to the COVID Delta variant as well as concerns over the Federal Reserve tapering has resulted in a “risk off” market.
Synchronicity
With global governments and central banks providing liquidity at an unprecedented pace, you would expect global growth to be growing synchronously. But, as has been the case from the beginning of the pandemic, the virus and the multitude of government responses to combat the virus have varied from country to country.
Housing Bubble 2.0?
The residential housing market can be characterized as frenzied in many parts of the country, which begs the question — is it in a bubble?
Are We There Yet?
“Are we there yet?” is a familiar back seat refrain that often occurs during long, summertime road trips involving bored children and their beleaguered parents. As we transition through our second COVID-affected summer, this frustration is also felt by investors and other market participants who long for some return to “normal.” Surely, we must all be there by now, right?
Breakthrough Earnings
A week that began with the sharpest pullback in equities since last fall concluded in remarkable fashion, as investor concerns about the economic repercussions of rising COVID-19 infections gave way to an increasingly constructive second quarter earnings season.
A Quick Look Under the Hood
The S&P 500 is up over 15% this year and up almost 35% over the last 12 months. This week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average eclipsed 35,000 — another “round number milestone.”
What’s the Deal with Interest Rates?
As investors, it’s important to have a view of the world and what you think the economy is going to do in the coming months and years. This informs all investment decisions from which stocks to purchase to which asset classes to over-or-underweight.
Sign of the Times
Earlier this week, my family and I were out to dinner when we saw a sign on the front door of the restaurant that read: “Being short staffed is the new pandemic… Thank you for your patience with us.” While we are familiar with the standard “help wanted” signs, specifically in the service sectors industry, you may have noticed a recent addition to these signs: signing bonuses.

                                
                              
                                
                              
















