George Hosfield, CFA, discusses Ferguson Wellman's quarterly strategy titled, "Inflation's Flame Flickers," which addresses the narrow market leadership, the impact of higher interest rates on inflation and how assets are priced at this stage of the economic cycle.
George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the firm's quarterly strategy titled "Stalemate," which highlights the Fed's ongoing battle to tame inflation along with our views on the health of the banking industry and capital market expectations for the balance of the year.
Director and Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the Fed raising interest rates, peaking inflation and our view on equities and volatility across all asset classes in our Investment Strategy titled, “Balancing Act.”
On Tuesday this week, inflation data as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) for the month of March was reported at 2.6 percent. This year-over-year inflation reading was significantly higher than it had been trending over the past few months.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called for a global minimum tax in a speech this week coinciding with the Biden administration’s call for a corporate tax increase. Just like the rules of recess football, it’s not the rate that’s important, it’s the certainty in the rules itself that matter.
Maybe it’s human nature, news coverage or it’s just a self-preservation mechanism, but I’ve decided to start calling this the “yeah, but….” recovery. “The global economy is going to boom in the second half of the year,” say the economists. And then comes, “Yeah, but…’
Last November, Pfizer announced a 95 percent efficacy of their COVID-19 vaccine. Since that time, there has been a notable shift in leadership within the stock market.
Twelve months ago, investors were in a state of sheer panic as they were witnessing stocks freefall by over 30 percent.
This week marks the one-year anniversary of the World Health Organization declaring the COVID-19 virus a pandemic. Since then, we have seen the largest economy in the world locked down, a massive spike in unemployment and the shortest economic recession on record, quickly followed by double-digit GDP growth.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in testimony to Congress last week said that the increase in Treasury bond yields is a "statement of confidence" in a robust economic outlook.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell briefed lawmakers this week on the state of monetary policy, assuring members of Congress that the central bank has no intention of raising interest rates anytime soon.
Inflation expectations are rising. Next month, we begin to lap the extraordinarily low inflation measured last year when the pandemic triggered a dramatic reduction of demand for both goods and services globally. Upcoming reports may be elevated when compared to last year’s weak results and we may see 3 to 4 percent increases in inflation this spring.
As long-term investors, we were pleased to see market news pivot away from last week’s GameStop mania and shift back to a focus on fundamentals. Although we prefer rational markets, we take no pleasure in the knowledge that many retail investors who purchased GameStop at more than $300 per share have seen the share price tumble to around $60.
This week, the conversation around the virtual water cooler centered on the unexpected and meteoric rise of GameStop’s stock price. The movie-worthy combination of hedge funds, internet forums and a 2,700 percent stock price jump culminated in worldwide news headlines and questions from our clients. Most notably, clients are asking: What is going on with GameStop and how is this impacting the rest of the market?
This week, as we usher in a new administration, there has been an increased focused on another stimulus package to keep the economy on solid footing. While the lame-duck session of Congress recently passed a $900 billion stimulus and checks have started being issued, the current administration is looking for an additional $1.9 trillion in stimulus. While negotiations will most likely bring this number lower, clients are voicing concerns about the national debt.
Two weeks into the new year, one might not be surprised to see the market as measured by the S&P 500 Index up less than half a percent. Following an unprecedented 2020, a more pedestrian start to the year – first week up, second week down – is perhaps just what investors need after a 2020 rollercoaster.
Today’s Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report spotlighted the difference between Wall Street and Main Street. The net loss of 140,000 jobs in December, driven by the loss of 372,000 restaurants and bar workers, was balanced by the increasing employment in other sectors of the economy, notably the manufacturing sector. These sectors continue to heal from the wrenching effects of the pandemic that took hold in last year’s first quarter.
2020 will be a year many Americans will want to forget, and rightfully so. Record unemployment, tragic loss of human life and people trapped at home with no where to go. No doubt, there is good news and bad news on the horizon.
As we move through the holiday season and collectively reflect on what has been an incredibly challenging year, we stay firm in our belief that the holidays are all about giving thanks, being grateful, staying humble and wishing for the best.
We are beginning to see the end of the pandemic as U.S. vaccine distribution begins this week. In addition, our research partner, Evercore ISI Research, is projecting that 100 million people will be vaccinated by end of the first quarter. Along with this victory comes predictions for the unfolding outcome for post-pandemic commercial real estate. The big debate centers around the persistence of the “work from home” trend permanently impacting demand for office space.
This week, “all the world’s a stage,” especially for William Shakespeare, the second person to be inoculated with the Pfizer vaccine in the UK. In the U.S., an outside panel of independent experts recommended Pfizer’s vaccine approval for emergency authorization. And as indicated this morning, FDA emergency use authorization approval should come shortly.
The blight of COVID-19 resulted in unfortunate milestones this week – record hospitalizations, ICU stays and most sobering, a single-day high in fatalities from the infection here in the U.S.
