George Hosfield, CFA, discusses Ferguson Wellman's quarterly strategy titled, "Inflation's Flame Flickers," which addresses the narrow market leadership, the impact of higher interest rates on inflation and how assets are priced at this stage of the economic cycle.
George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the firm's quarterly strategy titled "Stalemate," which highlights the Fed's ongoing battle to tame inflation along with our views on the health of the banking industry and capital market expectations for the balance of the year.
Director and Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the Fed raising interest rates, peaking inflation and our view on equities and volatility across all asset classes in our Investment Strategy titled, “Balancing Act.”
As long-term investors, we were pleased to see market news pivot away from last week’s GameStop mania and shift back to a focus on fundamentals. Although we prefer rational markets, we take no pleasure in the knowledge that many retail investors who purchased GameStop at more than $300 per share have seen the share price tumble to around $60.
This week, the conversation around the virtual water cooler centered on the unexpected and meteoric rise of GameStop’s stock price. The movie-worthy combination of hedge funds, internet forums and a 2,700 percent stock price jump culminated in worldwide news headlines and questions from our clients. Most notably, clients are asking: What is going on with GameStop and how is this impacting the rest of the market?
This week, as we usher in a new administration, there has been an increased focused on another stimulus package to keep the economy on solid footing. While the lame-duck session of Congress recently passed a $900 billion stimulus and checks have started being issued, the current administration is looking for an additional $1.9 trillion in stimulus. While negotiations will most likely bring this number lower, clients are voicing concerns about the national debt.
Two weeks into the new year, one might not be surprised to see the market as measured by the S&P 500 Index up less than half a percent. Following an unprecedented 2020, a more pedestrian start to the year – first week up, second week down – is perhaps just what investors need after a 2020 rollercoaster.
Today’s Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report spotlighted the difference between Wall Street and Main Street. The net loss of 140,000 jobs in December, driven by the loss of 372,000 restaurants and bar workers, was balanced by the increasing employment in other sectors of the economy, notably the manufacturing sector. These sectors continue to heal from the wrenching effects of the pandemic that took hold in last year’s first quarter.
2020 will be a year many Americans will want to forget, and rightfully so. Record unemployment, tragic loss of human life and people trapped at home with no where to go. No doubt, there is good news and bad news on the horizon.
As we move through the holiday season and collectively reflect on what has been an incredibly challenging year, we stay firm in our belief that the holidays are all about giving thanks, being grateful, staying humble and wishing for the best.
We are beginning to see the end of the pandemic as U.S. vaccine distribution begins this week. In addition, our research partner, Evercore ISI Research, is projecting that 100 million people will be vaccinated by end of the first quarter. Along with this victory comes predictions for the unfolding outcome for post-pandemic commercial real estate. The big debate centers around the persistence of the “work from home” trend permanently impacting demand for office space.
This week, “all the world’s a stage,” especially for William Shakespeare, the second person to be inoculated with the Pfizer vaccine in the UK. In the U.S., an outside panel of independent experts recommended Pfizer’s vaccine approval for emergency authorization. And as indicated this morning, FDA emergency use authorization approval should come shortly.
The blight of COVID-19 resulted in unfortunate milestones this week – record hospitalizations, ICU stays and most sobering, a single-day high in fatalities from the infection here in the U.S.
2020 has been such a challenging year for so many, so on this Thanksgiving weekend we offer our thanks to all the healthcare workers who have provided comfort to so many amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. We are also thankful for all the researchers and volunteers who appear to have us at the doorstep of widely available vaccines with the corresponding hope for a return to normalcy. True to form, financial markets have already begun anticipating what a post-vaccine world will look like and asset prices have responded accordingly.
The stock market is a discounting mechanism. What does that mean? It means the value today is explained by the economy in the future and ultimately long-term earnings.
On the back of the strongest election week returns since 1932, markets rallied sharply to begin this week as Pfizer announced 90 percent efficacy on a COVID-19 vaccine. Even more, the industries performing best were those most sensitive to economic momentum, instead of the “stay-at-home” trade that has dominated the market for the majority of the year with Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Facebook and Google accounting for around 80 percent of the S&P 500 return.
Assumed to be postulated by Aristotle, “horror vacui” roughly translates to “nature abhors a vacuum.” The financial market equivalent would be “horror incertae,” or “markets abhor uncertainty.”
We have been closely monitoring the recent uptick in COVID-19 infections across the country and in Europe. The path of the virus is the most important factor in the economic recovery and the thing that we know the least about.
While retail investors continue to be focused on negative media headlines, stocks continue to climb the “wall of worry.”
When the Federal Reserve cut their overnight policy rate by a total of 2.0 percent to the zero bound in the fourth quarter of 2008, few investors would have anticipated it would be another seven years before the Fed felt economic conditions warranted raising that policy rate by even one-quarter percent.
Each week our Investment Policy Committee meets to review asset allocation and our outlook for the economy and global markets. We have a standard book of economic charts that we review to determine the health of the economy and what is transpiring around the world and many of these indicators go back decades.
For many, 2020 has been a year to forget. Headlined by the COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuing global response, stimulus from central banks and governments has helped limit the damage, as the U.S. economy has now experienced its shortest and steepest recession ever.
For the fourth consecutive week, stocks posted negative returns with the S&P 500 trading near 3,220 for most of this week. Market technicians would view this as a technical support level or a base from which the market can work. At the current levels, the market can consolidate and take a breath to prepare for what is next.
