Without question, 2020 has brought about not only a steep, yet short-lived, recession, but also a material change in consumer preferences and behavior.
At Home and Online
Unscripted Inflation?
The aggressive fiscal and monetary response to the COVID-19 crisis has been unprecedented in terms of speed and magnitude. A common topic we receive from clients is about the risk of inflation as a result of the response to the crisis.
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a strong jobs report for the month of August, with nonfarm payroll employment rose by nearly 1.4 million.
TINA and the Death of the Phillips Curve
Is Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell taking a shot at the Phillips curve? His announcement this week at the virtual Jackson Hole conference revealed that the focus of Fed policy is shifting to be more on maximizing employment and less on the 2 percent inflation target they have had since 2012.
103 Days
While market commentators continue to debate the shape of economic recovery, a quick glance at an S&P 500 price chart confirms the V-shaped recovery investors have enjoyed since the dark days of late March.
A Slow Healing Process
All day and every day we are bombarded by economic, company and political news. And not just U.S. news, but global news as well. Even in normal times this can seem overwhelming, and especially so during a pandemic.
Better, but a Long Way to Go
This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy added nearly 1.8 million jobs in the month of July, outpacing economist expectations for an addition of 1.5 million.
Fed Meets, Big Stocks Beats
“The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus.” Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated this point emphatically in his comments following the two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). To most people this may seem like stating the obvious, but sometimes it bears repeating, especially considering the data released this week.
Commercial Real Estate’s Perfect Storm
The COVID-19 crisis has been the perfect storm for commercial real estate. While the economy is showing signs of life as most of the country reopens, the shock to the commercial real estate market was unprecedented.
Two Steps Forward, One Step Back
Economic data the past week reinforced the view that the U.S. economy continues to improve. This was highlighted by the retail sales number released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Thursday morning.
Credit the Recovery
Looking back on the first six months of fixed income performance this year reveals a stark tale of two strikingly different quarters.
The Global Economy is Healing
Economic signals indicate that the recovery has begun around the world. As expected, China has been the first to emerge from recession, and their economy is moving forward.
A Shifting Narrative
Preliminary June manufacturing activity gauges pointing to continued progress in re-opening the economy have given way to rising concerns about a resurgence of coronavirus.
Resolving the Dichotomy
Many investors are puzzled by the apparent disconnect between the U.S. stock market and an economy that remains in recession with an unemployment rate last seen in the Great Depression.
Stubbed Toe
In recent months, stocks have experienced an impressive rally, resulting in many commentators and analysts creating new and unusual analogies. This week, our favorite is “the market’s new coffee table.”
A Message from Ferguson Wellman and West Bearing
Today, Ferguson Wellman and our division, West Bearing Investments, are making a public statement about our position on racism and our commitment to racial diversity within our company.
The Great Disconnect
There has been a decade's worth of world events in the last three months. An oil price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, growing tension and trade disputes with China, a global pandemic and this week the worst domestic civil unrest in a generation.
Down in a Hole
Thursday’s unemployment claims continued to paint a dismal picture in the jobs market, where roughly 2.1 million people filed for initial claims last week, which brings the total over the last two months to roughly 40 million.
Baby Steps
All 50 states have now taken steps to re-open according to the Wall Street Journal. While still devastating in magnitude, many high-frequency and leading economic indicators may be past their “worst-ever” levels, showing slight improvement from their recent and historic lows.
Opening for Business
Following a stimulus-induced surge from March lows, blue-chip stocks that had mounted over a 30-percent advance have consolidated gains so far in May.