As first quarter reporting season draws to another constructive close, investors’ attention was ripped away from the earnings scorecard and refocused almost exclusively on trade.
A Curve Ball in May
The Economy: Growing but Slowing
It’s the tail-end of the first quarter of 2019 earnings reporting season and the results have been better than expected. While corporate earnings growth was up 22 percent in 2018 due in part to tax cuts, this year those same cuts will provide limited benefits and corporate earnings growth is expected to only be up around 5 percent for the full-year 2019.
Tariffs Hit the Spin Cycle
Although tariffs and trade disputes have been front and center in the news, their impact may not yet be felt by U.S. consumers. If you’ve purchased a washer and dryer recently, it’s likely that you now have firsthand and inadvertent experience bearing their cost.
Prognosis Negative
While the broad market finished the holiday-shortened week positive, healthcare investors weren’t as fortunate. Continued chatter regarding “Medicare for All” as well as a Health and Human Services proposal to ban drug rebates for Medicare are weighing on the sector.
Tax Seasoning: SALT and Preparers
April 15 a.k.a. Tax Day for the United States, is fast approaching. As we near the finish line, many Americans are already seeing the impact; the IRS reported in congressional testimony earlier this month that they have issued 2.2 percent fewer refunds compared to the same time last year.
Global Hunt for Yield
Investors the world over are starved for yield. Investments that provide a consistent stream of cash flow are vital for insurance companies, pensions, retired individuals and banks.
0-for-7
While yesterday was Major League Baseball’s Opening Day, this week’s 0-for-7 statistic unceremoniously belongs to the Federal Reserve for failing to achieve its 2 percent inflation target since it was established seven years ago.
Policy U-Turn
On Wednesday, in a widely anticipated event, the Federal Reserve held a press conference and released the “minutes” from their last meeting. The Fed changed their forecast for the path of interest rates from two increases all the way down to … zero.
March Madness
This weekend, millions of college basketball fans will start filling out their NCAA tournament brackets. The period during this “distraction” can be economically meaningful to corporate America: it is estimated that, due to lost productivity, companies will lose a combined $6.3 billion.
A Tin Star for the Market
On Saturday, March 9, we mark the 10th anniversary of the stock market bottom that started the great bull market we’re now experiencing. Traditionally, tin is the gift given on a 10th anniversary. So in lieu of a gold star, the equity markets deserve a tin star for impressively running up 400 percent since that bottom.
Bonds 101
Bonds are, at their core, less complex and more easily understood than most clients might assume. While “interest rates” and “bond yields” make them sound complicated, bonds can be boiled down quite simply: bonds are loans.
It's All About Confidence
It’s hard not to be a little discouraged each night when you watch the evening news. The laundry list of problems facing the markets can seem quite daunting: Fed tightening, slowing growth, dysfunction in Washington, D.C, tariffs, etc. We believe that these are real issues that certainly need to be addressed.
Green Shoots in February
The offhand reference to stock charts in a rising trend accurately describes the good times stock investors have enjoyed so far this year. For those who hung tight amid the carnage of December, the S&P 500 has delivered returns just shy of 11 percent so far this year.
"Fewer Bigger Stronger" - Bill Joseph, Morgan Stanley
On Thursday, SunTrust Banks and BB&T Corporation announced the biggest bank merger in 10 years. The partnership will create a banking powerhouse in the Mid-Atlantic region and throughout the southeast United States.
Closing the Gap
One of the four takeaways from our 2019 Economic Outlook is “Increased Turbulence” which has been in full force this winter. In December, the S&P 500 lost 13.5 percent, including the “Christmas Eve Massacre,” making it the worst December since 1931. In a complete reversal, the market returned 8 percent in January, representing the best January return in 30 years.
Opportunity Zones: Walk, Don't Run
Opportunity zones have become a trending topic in financial circles of late and we are taking a “walk, don’t run” approach when reviewing the space.
Versus Capital Update
Versus Capital is a partner that we utilize for private real estate and real asset investing on behalf of clients.
Leave the Past Behind
Stocks put in a bottom on Christmas Eve of 2018 and have since rallied close to 10 percent. While December of last year was the worst since 1931, we believe that the worst is behind us.
Growing But Slowing
2019 is off to a turbulent start. The first couple trading days of the year were the worst in 18 years, only to be eclipsed by a huge rally today that left equity investors a bit richer for the week, albeit whipsawed in the process.
Turning the Page
As we look back on 2018, we can summarize the year as one where volatility emerged at the same time equity markets and the economy diverged enormously. In fact, 2018 is estimated to produce the strongest economic growth since the Global Financial Crisis at 3.0 percent.