the Fed

A Good Year In a Few Months: The U.S. Stock Market's Remarkable Rally

A Good Year In a Few Months: The U.S. Stock Market's Remarkable Rally

During the decade I spent in San Francisco, I had the pleasure of working with a great economist and investor from 2015 to 2019. Those years proved formative for my investing career, and I learned much from my time there. Recently, I have been reminded of an adage of his. After a short period of strong performance, he would exclaim, “We had a good year this month!”, meaning the portfolio returned what we considered a good year's worth of returns in a fraction of the time. Given the robust performance of the stock market over the last several months, I have been reminded of this saying more than a few times.  

The End of an Era

The End of an Era

Would you have believed us if we had told you on January 1 that the S&P 500 would be up nearly 10% year-to-date after last year’s 25% jump?

A Lot to Digest

A Lot to Digest

A bank failure, a rate hike and a surprisingly strong jobs number all led to volatile equity markets this week, with negative returns led by energy stocks and regional banks. We’ll first discuss the takeover of First Republic bank, then the effect of the Fed’s actions mid-week. Finally, we’ll hit on the employment numbers for April. 

The Bear Market Bounce

The Bear Market Bounce

Last Friday, the market closed out the day, week, month and quarter all with negative returns. Fears of higher inflation, more tightening by the Federal Reserve and potentially lower corporate earnings weighed on investors’ minds. The S&P 500 broke below the June low last week, extending the bear market that began in January. At 269 days as of quarter end, this is the most protracted correction since the March 2009 low. Surprisingly, the market decided to pull a 180 early this week, returning almost 6% on Monday and Tuesday. So, what was the deal?

Just Keep Swimming ... Just Keep Swimming

Just Keep Swimming ... Just Keep Swimming

In the Pixar classic Finding Nemo, the characters Dory and Marlin were hovering over a trench, the black unknown below, and they had just lost their last hope of finding Marlin’s son, Nemo.

Winds of Change

Winds of Change

What has become known as the Trump Trade has delivered strong equity returns since election day last fall, with the benchmark S&P 500 rising by 6.5 percent over this period. More remarkable is the fact that the blue chip index hasn’t experienced a 1 percent or greater loss since October 11, 2016.