There’s a common belief that most of the U.S. national debt is owned by foreign countries—especially China. But the reality is far more nuanced, with most of the debt being held domestically. As of December 2024, the total U.S. national debt stood at $36.1 trillion. That number includes two main parts: debt held by the public and intragovernmental holdings. The public portion—about $28.8 trillion—is what really matters when we talk about who owns U.S. debt. The rest, around $7.3 trillion, is money the government owes itself, such as social security and Medicare trust funds.
New Year, Same Fluctuating Economy
Lately, clients have been asking us one question: how are longer-term bond yields moving higher when the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates?
Fiscal Irresponsibility
We frequently receive questions from clients regarding the sustainability of U.S. government debt. According to the U.S. treasury, the American government has run a budget surplus only four times in the last 50 years, with the most recent being in 2001.
When Is A Surprise Not A Surprise?
For years, our clients have worried about the ballooning debt situation with the U.S. federal government. Fitch Ratings, which is one of the three main credit rating agencies, verified these worries earlier this week when they lowered the U.S. government’s credit rating from AAA to AA+. While many called this a surprise move, others have been expecting this for some time.
The "Yeah, but..." Recovery
Maybe it’s human nature, news coverage or it’s just a self-preservation mechanism, but I’ve decided to start calling this the “yeah, but….” recovery. “The global economy is going to boom in the second half of the year,” say the economists. And then comes, “Yeah, but…’