Great Depression

Data vs. Drama: The Real Economic Story

Data vs. Drama: The Real Economic Story

After a 20% rebound from its April 7 lows, the S&P 500 is positive for the year, marking one of the most significant short-term comebacks in market history. The market rallied on Monday following weekend news about tariff negotiations with China. In a complete reversal from the earlier “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, the punitive 145% tariff rate on Chinese goods was reduced to 30%, with a 90-day pause implemented. In response, China lowered its retaliatory tariff rate on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%.

A Lost Decade

A Lost Decade

This morning, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released unemployment statistics capturing the full effects of shelter-in-place mandates: in April, over 20 million jobs were lost, the highest monthly loss on record. This resulted in an unemployment rate of 14.7 percent, the highest since the Great Depression when unemployment was above 25 percent.

Chart-side Chats

Chart-side Chats

Last week marked the semi-sesquicentennial anniversary of Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s death which sparked many to compare our current financial markets to the Great Depression. As the stock market continues its rapid ascent for a second week and pundits start talking about the shape of the recovery, there is one lesson some overlook from the Depression era — the value of FDR’s fireside chats. During these chats, the president used simple, direct language to convey very difficult news; a format we are keeping in mind.