Keep Calm and Carry On

Shawn-00397_cmykby Shawn Narancich, CFAExecutive Vice President of Research

Feeling Violated

Worries about competitive currency devaluations emanating from China’s small haircut to the yuan last week were supplanted this week by manufacturing related fears that the world’s second largest economy could be experiencing a hard landing. The result was a tough week for equity investors, as European stocks entered correction territory and U.S. stocks fell five percent.

Timing is Everything

As the sell-off accelerated into today’s close, we couldn’t help but wonder what market soothing policy moves the Chinese might institute next, nor could we ignore the palpable sense that the Fed’s lift-off from zero interest rate policy just got delayed again. Volatility in stocks will register with Yellen & Co. as they attempt to time this cycle’s first interest rate hike. However, more impactful will be the continued deflation in commodities that threatens to leave the price level far from the Fed’s stated goal of two percent inflation. As oil seeks out new cyclical lows and Treasuries benefit from a flight-to-quality bid, the trade-weighted dollar actually declined today. At a time of increased economic and market turmoil overseas, this hints of US monetary policy remaining easier for longer.

Reasons For Optimism

Low fuel prices and an increasingly healthy job market are combining to boost the collective spending power of U.S. consumers, helping drive the economy to what we believe will be a stronger second half of the year. Notwithstanding this week’s pullback in stocks, we look forward to a better second half of the year for corporate America, which should benefit from easier foreign currency comparisons and a turnaround in oil prices, two key factors that have helped keep earnings flat so far this year. As profit visibility improves, we expect stocks to make forward progress.

Ringin’ the Till

With all but a small number of companies having now reported, the sun is setting on a second quarter earnings season characterized again by companies under promising and over delivering. Retailers book-ended Q2 numbers this week by reporting a decidedly mixed bag of results. While America’s largest retailer struggles to grow, Wal-Mart’s rival Target came through with earnings just strong enough to make investors believe that this beleaguered retailer has put the worst of its merchandising and credit breech struggles behind it. Standing out to the upside was Home Depot, which reported another impressive quarter of sales driven by higher house prices and rising home improvement spending. While closing down for the week amidst market turmoil, Home Depot’s stock outperformed the broader market as management once again raised its profit forecast for the year.

Our Takeaways from the Week

  • A sell-off in global equities pierced the veil of U.S. market tranquility
  • Retailers concluded second quarter earnings season by reporting mixed results