George Hosfield, CFA, discusses Ferguson Wellman's quarterly strategy titled, "Inflation's Flame Flickers," which addresses the narrow market leadership, the impact of higher interest rates on inflation and how assets are priced at this stage of the economic cycle.
George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the firm's quarterly strategy titled "Stalemate," which highlights the Fed's ongoing battle to tame inflation along with our views on the health of the banking industry and capital market expectations for the balance of the year.
Director and Chief Investment Officer George Hosfield, CFA, discusses the Fed raising interest rates, peaking inflation and our view on equities and volatility across all asset classes in our Investment Strategy titled, “Balancing Act.”
At first glance, what some investors thought might by a perfect U.S. labor report for January met with a resounding thud in financial markets Friday. It seemed to be one without so many jobs created that the Fed would be forced into raising rates at an uncomfortably fast pace, yet a report that was still strong enough to
As of Thursday this week, roughly one-third of the S&P 500 companies have reported earnings for the fourth quarter of 2016. Of the 171 companies that have reported earnings 8 percent were in-line with expectations, 19 percent had a negative surprise and 72.6 percent reported a positive
Speaking before a packed Portland Business Alliance audience, economist John Mitchell predicted that the region’s economy will continue to expand at an annual rate of about two percent through 2016.
A cast iron mechanical bank is a fitting symbol for Ferguson Wellman Capital Management. The Portland investment firm, which this year is celebrating its 40th anniversary, manages more than $4.3 billion for 743 wealthy clients and is known for strength, solidity and an approach to investing that steers away from risk. Not surprisingly,
That’s the message we heard loud and clear from the markets this week. As economies and markets around the world wobble to start the new year, they were looking to central banks to bail them out. Mario Draghi gave markets around the world some solace with his dovish news conference yesterday.
For investors, this year started with more than a passing resemblance to 2015, according to executives at Portland-based investment firm Ferguson Wellman Capital Management.
At the firm’s annual investment outlook Wednesday at Deschutes Brewery, in Bend, two Ferguson Wellman vice presidents advised cautious optimism. They took their theme from the
PORTLAND, Ore. – January 18, 2016 – Ferguson Wellman Capital Management is pleased to announce that the firm has been named by Oregon Business Magazine as a top financial planner/manager in their annual Power Book publication.
Earlier this week we lost a music icon. While I was not a big fan of David Bowie, there are a few songs of his that I enjoy. My favorite is “Under Pressure” which he co-wrote with the band Queen in 1981. The title is very appropriate for what we
The slowing Chinese economy is ripping through markets, but Ferguson Wellman Capital Management is telling clients not to worry too much because the U.S. economy remains strong.
As we observe U.S. stocks down roughly 5 percent in the first week of 2016, we are reminded of what occurred last fall when Chinese growth concerns and a strong dollar reverberated around the globe. While China accounts for only
PORTLAND, Ore. – January 8, 2016 – Ferguson Wellman Capital Management was recently informed that the firm was named by Financial Planning to their “Top 150 Registered Investment Advisers Firms.”
Santa Claus left investors with a lump of coal this December. Historically, the S&P 500 is positive in the month of December with a return of roughly 2 percent. 2015 resulted in a flat return, summing up the entire year for investors. There
Borrowing a theme from the 1993 comedy in which TV weatherman Phil Connors (Bill Murray) fi nds himself reliving the same day over and over again, we believe that the global economic backdrop in 2016 will be very similar to that of the past year. To that end, modest economic growth, tame
PORTLAND, Ore. – December 10, 2015 – Ferguson Wellman Capital Management is pleased to announce that the firm has been named by Portland Business Journal as a “Most Admired Company.” Of the 10 financial services companies listed in the top tier the firm was ranked third. This is the 11th consecutive year that the company has been selected. The list is compiled by surveying over 3,000 CEOs across the state of Oregon and southwest Washington. CEOs were asked to select three companies they most admired in eight industries, as well as three companies they most admired across all industries. Companies eligible for consideration were not limited to those based in Oregon and southwest Washington, but included any business with a substantial presence in the region.
“We are honored to have been selected, along with many other companies that we respect and admire throughout our region,” said Mark Kralj, principal.
Founded in 1975, Ferguson Wellman Capital Management is a privately owned registered investment advisory firm, established in the Pacific Northwest. As of 2015, the firm manages over $4 billion for more than 700 clients that include individuals and families; Taft-Hartley and corporate retirement plans; and endowments and foundations with portfolios of $3 million or more. West Bearing Investments, a division of Ferguson Wellman, serves clients with assets starting at $750,000.
(data as of January 1, 2015)
PORTLAND, Ore. – December 10, 2015 – Ferguson Wellman is pleased to announce that Mary Lago, CTFA, has joined the firm as executive vice president and a member of the firm’s wealth management committee.
With more than 15 years of experience in the financial industry, Lago came to Ferguson Wellman after working at Washington Trust Bank as vice president and regional manager for wealth management and trust services. At Washington Trust and at previous employers, she worked in personal trust administration and trust management. She began her career in the 1990s in Silicon Valley during the technology boom, later establishing the trust company at First Republic Bank. Lago has expertise on the topics of charitable planning in a low interest rate environment, selecting a trustee, establishing investment policy guidelines, managing cash flow and charitable giving components on installment sales and assisting clients with multi-generational wealth transfers. She is a frequent speaker for the Oregon State Bar and other organizations on the topic of estate and trust planning. Lago is a certified trust and financial adviser and graduated from Linfield College with a B.S. in business administration.
“Mary has significant experience working with investment management and trust services,” said Steve Holwerda, CFA, chief operating officer and principal at Ferguson Wellman. “She is a proven leader and shares our core values. We are looking forward to her joining our team, serving clients and focusing on company growth.”
Founded in 1975, Ferguson Wellman Capital Management is a privately owned registered investment advisory firm, established in the Pacific Northwest. As of 2015, the firm manages over $4 billion for more than 700 clients that include individuals and families; Taft-Hartley and corporate retirement plans; and endowments and foundations with portfolios of $3 million or more. West Bearing Investments, a division of Ferguson Wellman, serves clients with assets starting at $750,000. (data as of January 2015).
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by Brad Houle, CFAExecutive Vice President
Last week, Third Avenue Management announced that they were freezing withdrawals from a leveraged credit fund. This announcement sent a wave of fear of broader contagion through the high-yield bond market. This fund bought bonds that were both illiquid and very risky from a credit quality perspective. Also, the fund employed leverage (borrowed money) in an attempt to enhance returns. This fund was swinging for the fences and not for risk adverse investors. This turbulence has bled over into the broader category of below investment grade bonds also referred to as high-yield.
Bonds that are below investment grade are often referred to as junk bonds due to the lower credit quality of the issuing companies. Junk bond is a somewhat of a pejorative description of an important part of the bond market. Small companies that are growing, a large engine for the U.S. economy, often fit into the category of below investment grade credit. It is important that there are public market debt financing options available for these entities. Because of the lower credit quality, investors demand more compensation in the form of interest in order to loan these companies money. Due to the lower credit quality there is a higher potential default risk for these bonds.
The genesis of this recent sell-off in the high-yield bond market has been the decline in the price of oil. Many smaller oil and gas companies use the high-yield debt market to finance their operations. When the price of oil declines these small oil and gas companies make less money and have more difficulty paying back the money they have borrowed. As a result, the prices on high-yield bonds in that segment of the market declined. Retail investors in mutual funds became nervous, withdrawing money from high-yield mutual funds and, to meet redemptions, the fund managers had to sell what they could to meet the investor demand for money. This dynamic has caused other parts of the high-yield bond market to decline as well.
Another wrinkle to this negative situation has been the decline in liquidity in the bond market. The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act that came from the financial crisis with the intention of reforming Wall Street has helped to create this predicament. Dodd-Frank severely limits the ability of large bank bond trading departments to inventory bonds, making building an effective market difficult due to capital requirements.
The higher quality investment grade market is where we invest our clients’ fixed income assets. Thus far, the investment grade bond market has only been modestly impacted by the sell-off. By comparison, the Barclays High Yield Index has declined 4.7 percent this year versus the Barclays Investment Grade Intermediate Credit Index which has returned 1 percent.
Our Takeaways from the Week
Oregon Bankers, Businesses Await Fallout from the Fed Rate Hike
by Andy Giegerich
Portland banking leaders have steadfastly agreed that the prospect of a higher federal funds rate, the figure set by the Federal Reserve by which other interest rates are set, won't affect commercial lending.
After the Fed pulled the trigger on a hike, it's now time to find out whether that'll remain true.
Linda Williams noted even with the hike, interest rates "are still low and attractive from a borrowing perspective.”
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday said it would raise the figure, and by extension short-term interest rates, by 0.25 percentage points. The rate will now range between 0.25 percent and 0.50 percent.
The Federal Reserve announced the decision Wednesday morning. The body had been expected to boost the rate in October.
"Household spending and business fixed investment have been increasing at solid rates in recent months, and the housing sector has improved further; however, net exports have been soft," Fed officials said in a statement announcing the hike.
"A range of recent labor market indicators, including ongoing job gains and declining unemployment, shows further improvement and confirms that underutilization of labor resources has diminished appreciably since early this year. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; some survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have edged down."
The Federal Reserve hadn’t raised the benchmark interest rate for seven years, holding it near zero since 2008. Today's decision earned unanimous approval from the Fed, including an endorsement from Chair Janet Yellen.
Locally, at least one financial services firm reacted with a shrug.
"This was certainly the most talked about and anticipated Fed rate hike in history," wrote Ferguson Wellman Capital Management advisers. "As such, anticipated events become nonevents to the markets."
Specifically, the bond market was a bit lower while stocks were up 1.5 percent.
"The economy is robust enough that the Federal Reserve wants to 'tap the brakes' to keep the economy from overheating," the advisers wrote. "Ultimately, this rate hike should be interpreted as good news for the markets and economy."
We asked a few local bankers about the rate increase possibility in September.
“The anticipated interest rate increase hasn’t had an immediate effect on the Oregon middle market," said Ralph Hamm, Wells Fargo's commercial banking manager for Oregon.
"The common sentiment is that an increase is long overdue. A small interest rate uptick would send a positive message that our economy is improving, which is also supported by local signs of growth.”
Linda Williams, president of Washington Trust Bank's Oregon region, agreed.
"Commercial loan demand remains solid and financial institutions are actively competing for business," she said. "Any impact from interest rate increases will probably not occur until several interest rate increases have occurred. By historical standards, interest rates are still low and attractive from a borrowing perspective.”
However, Rick Roby, president and CEO of Premier Community Bank, fears that the boost could "raise the cost for businesses and could possibly cause a contraction of borrowing which over time will slow the economy. This type of environment creates more intense competition for acceptable credits."
Late last month, Dave Lofland, KeyBank's market president for Oregon and Southwest Washington, accurately predicted that the Fed wouldn't make any sharp hikes.
"For that reason, we don’t think any rate hike will be a serious impediment for the ability to borrow," he said.
"For many companies, their challenge isn’t the interest rate but what to do with their cash. The industrial side of the economy continues to struggle. It’s not pointing necessarily to a recession, but it’s made businesses more cautious. Many businesses have just struggled to deploy cash so they’re sitting with cash on the sidelines or capacity on their loans without industrial projects to go after."
by Shawn Narancich, CFAExecutive Vice President of Research
Awaiting Lift-Off
Following last week’s solid jobs report, a clear plurality of investors now expect the Federal Reserve to raise short-term interest rates next week. But once the Fed has achieved lift-off, what then? Amid ongoing dollar strength and falling energy prices, corporate profits have stagnated this year and economic growth remains pedestrian, causing concern about more of the same in 2016, but with less monetary accommodation along the way. We expect the path of Fed rate tightening to be gradual because inflation remains nearly non-existent. Even excluding food and fuel prices, so called “core inflation” also remains notably below the Fed’s 2 percent objective.
Mission Partly Accomplished
What we do have, and what is leading to the end of zero interest rate policy, is a state of relatively full employment. Although the labor force participation rate remains near decade low levels, the Fed rightfully sees its full employment mandate as having been achieved. In turn, we have seen stirrings of labor cost inflation, both statistically and anecdotally. The employment cost index is finally nearing 3 percent after having spent a prolonged stretch below that mark. Real life examples include fast food restaurants like McDonald’s and retailers Wal-Mart and TJ Maxx having to boost wage rates to keep employees; the degree to which labor inflation takes hold more broadly will be important to gauge, as this combined with the productivity of labor determine what we believe to be the single most enduring predictor of consumer price inflation – unit labor costs. Perhaps because of muted levels of capital spending later in the economic cycle, workers’ productivity has proven to be disappointing in recent quarters, increasing upward risk to this key measure. As the Yellen Fed achieves lift-off from zero percent interest rates, it will be closely tracking its labor force dashboard in helping to determine how fast and how high rates ultimately go.
OPEC Laissez-Faire
OPEC finished its latest and much anticipated meeting in Austria last Friday much like we expected, acceding to the current level of the 12-member cartel’s production, but apparently not making any plans to accommodate additional liftings from Iran once UN sanctions are lifted, as expected sometime early next year. While some thought OPEC would cut production, this outcome never seemed likely. Lead producer Saudi Arabia’s strategy has come into focus – keep oil prices low enough, long enough, to accommodate its recapture of market share and stimulate enough additional demand to tighten oil markets naturally. In essence, the cartel has ceased to act as one. By all accounts, the meeting was highly contentious and unusually long, the result of discord that saw members Venezuela, Nigeria and Ecuador argue unsuccessfully for reduced liftings.
Black Gold?
Oil prices fell on the news last Friday and have proceeded to breach late August support levels of $40/barrel. Not helping oil bulls’ cause is news this week that Iraqi production gains have boosted OPEC production to fresh three-year highs in November at the same time the El Nino weather phenomenon has warmed the Northern Hemisphere and squelched early season demand for heating oil, an important seasonal product of crude oil. These headwinds notwithstanding, we maintain our belief that oil markets will tighten as U.S. production continues to roll over, non-OPEC, ex-U.S. production stagnates, and oil demand again grows at a faster than anticipated clip. Barring a market share war within OPEC (one that would be fought with limited means given how little excess production capacity the cartel has), Saudi’s de facto strategy appears destined to succeed. We see modest levels of oversupply morphing into undersupply as 2016 progresses. After all, the following adage holds – the best cure for low oil prices is low oil prices.
Our Takeaways from the Week
