The Battle for Retail

A banana duct taped to a wall sold for $6.2 million dollars this week to a cryptocurrency founder. With bitcoin nearing $100,000 and up more than 40% in November alone, bullish sentiment may be reaching levels of excess and froth in certain corners of the capital markets.

Now that I have your attention… let’s save the art & cryptocurrency conversations for next week’s Thanksgiving dinner table and transition the discussion to companies generating free cash flow and income for investors.

For the eleventh consecutive quarter, the nation’s largest retailer, Walmart, delivered better-than-expected sales growth driven by strong demand for groceries, home goods and toys. Even more impressive than the topline growth, its U.S. market share gains are being driven by households earning more than $100,000 - a sign that the addition of premium offerings, expanded e-commerce selection and same-day delivery are attracting more high-income shoppers to the low-cost retailer.

The company’s recent success underscores the effectiveness of Walmart's strategic investments in omnichannel capabilities, price leadership and newer, faster-growing businesses, such as Walmart+ and advertising. And I think that's one of the things that makes this moment in time different.

In large part, this helps explain why Walmart’s stock price is at all-time highs, up more than 65% this year, while Target’s stock price is 50% below their all-time highs reached in 2021 and down more than 10% this year.

As we head into the holiday shopping season, it’s becoming increasingly clear the big are getting bigger in retail. This week, Morgan Stanley released a report showing Amazon and Walmart, the two largest U.S. retailers, account for 73% of every incremental dollar in the e-commerce channel. Furthermore, as most retailers struggle to grow same store sales, the “Big 3” (Amazon, Costco, and Walmart) are commanding 36% of every incremental dollar of retail sales.

To us, this dynamic makes sense as consumers have become more price conscious and demand convenience after multiple years of elevated inflation.

Takeaways for the Week:

• Stocks drifted higher this week, up more than 1%, with all 11 economic sectors in the green.
• The ongoing battle between the “Big 3” and other retailers was highlighted by the earnings reports of Walmart and Target this week.
• According to the National Retail Federation, consumers are expected to spend $980 billion this holiday season, up ~3% compared to last year.

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