Whiplash

Equity markets reversed sharply this week as a post-election rally on Wednesday quickly gave way to the steepest one-day decline since the tariff announcement in April 2025. On Thursday, the S&P 500 fell 4.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite entered correction territory. In our view, this sudden shift reflects a repricing of the AI trade rather than a fundamental shift in corporate earnings. Our opinion is that interest rates, not election outcomes, remain the primary risk for markets.

A Rally, Then a Rout

On Wednesday, stocks initially surged following the midterm elections, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 3.6% points and the Nasdaq Composite rising 1.4%. Beneath the surface, however, semiconductor and AI infrastructure stocks were already faltering, with Nvidia alone dropping 3.2% on the same day.

By the next day, the weakness broadened into a market-wide selloff as the Dow and S&P 500 fell 4.1% and 4.4%, respectively. The Nasdaq Composite reversed course, tumbling 5.5% and closing more than 10% below its October 6 peak, while the VIX, a measure of volatility (and what some might call the market’s “fear gauge”), spiked roughly 70%.

Market losses scaled directly with a firm's exposure to AI capital expenditures. This pattern aligns with a targeted recalibration of AI-linked growth expectations rather than a broad, uniform retreat from risk assets.

Three distinct forces converged to trigger the market decline:

1. Press reports indicate Democrats secured control of both congressional chambers, raising investor concerns over potential AI regulations and a slower approval pace for data centers. The market is particularly sensitive to these risks, as data center construction has surged 68% this year even while other commercial construction sectors have contracted.
2. Corporate earnings season shifted investor focus from top-line revenue growth to free cash flow generation. Several major cloud providers reported negative free cash flow, and debt-funded operators were hit hardest. Over the past twelve months, Amazon used $42.4 billion more cash than it generated (down from a $14.8 billion surplus a year ago), while Alphabet reported a quarterly cash flow deficit exceeding $9 billion. Investors rewarded capital discipline: Microsoft spent roughly $5 billion less than consensus expectations, sending its shares higher.
3. October payrolls added 165,000 jobs, far outpacing the earlier ~59,000 consensus estimate, and unemployment edged down 0.1% to 4.1%. Futures markets now price in a ~78% probability of a Fed rate hike in December (up from 70%). After the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28, with two dissenting votes for a hike, comments from regional Fed presidents this week signaled further tightening remains (i.e., rate hikes) on the table.

Volatility in Perspective

Volatility has been a recurring theme in 2026. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index fell into a correction in March, surged to new records in June, flirted with correction territory in July and logged fresh highs through September and October.

Macroeconomic fundamentals remain supportive:

• The economy is growing, as third-quarter GDP expanded at a solid 3.4% annualized rate
• As of the market-close on November 5, the S&P 493 has returned 14.8% year-to-date, outperforming the equally weighted Magnificent 7 (1.1%), indicating the breadth of the market continues to widen (FactSet)
• Earnings trajectory remains positive, as of October 30, third-quarter S&P 500 earnings growth was tracking at 29.5% year-over-year, with consensus estimates at 33.1% for 2026 and 16.0% for 2027
• The S&P 500 forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stood at 18.4x—below both its five-year average (19.8x) and 10-year average (19.1x)

The Conclusions from This Week

Strong earnings growth, combined with valuations near or below historical averages, reinforces our conviction that this move represents a standard correction within an ongoing bull market, rather than a structural turn in economic fundamentals. While elections make headlines, they rarely serve as market-clearing events: policy changes regarding taxation, regulation and foreign trade take years to implement and generally require substantial legislative majorities. We view ongoing market volatility as an opportunity to execute strategic rebalancing aligned with each client's long-term financial goals.

As always, we continue to watch for catalysts that might make us question our hypothesis, including:

• The October CPI report to be released next Tuesday and the December 9 FOMC rate decision
• Capital spending and free cash flow commentary in upcoming earnings reports
• State, local and federal policy directives regarding data center permitting and AI regulation
• The 10-year Treasury yield relative to the 5.00% benchmark level

Takeaways for the Week

• The S&P 500 dropped 4.4% on Thursday, and the Nasdaq entered a correction, driven by a pullback in AI and semiconductor shares
• Post-election regulatory uncertainty and heightened focus on free cash flow metrics pressured high-valuation tech names
• Strong labor market data (165,000 jobs added in October) raised the market’s expectations of a December Fed rate hike to 78%
• Solid earnings momentum and fair valuations support our equity positioning. We remain focused on interest rate trends as the primary tactical risk

Disclosure

The views expressed represent the opinion of Ferguson Wellman. The views are subject to change and are not intended as a forecast or guarantee of future results. This material is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice and is not intended as an endorsement of any specific investment. Statements of future expectations, estimates, projections and other forward-looking statements are based on available information and Ferguson Wellman’s views as of the time of these statements. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Ferguson Wellman, Octavia Group and West Bearing do not provide tax, legal, insurance or medical advice. This material has been prepared for general educational purposes only and not as a substitute for qualified counsel who can determine how this information applies to you. We believe the information provided is from reliable sources but should not be assumed accurate or complete.

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