[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":167},["ShallowReactive",2],{"gql:data:uo20xMIfJw9sc_Af0EMz-E6fT8oGpZheqPHwNSjBvYo":3},{"mediaItem":4},{"relatedItems":5,"date":85,"derivedSeoDescription":86,"derivedSeoTitle":87,"derivedSocialMediaDescription":86,"derivedSocialMediaImage":88,"derivedSocialMediaTitle":87,"flexComponents":100,"author":9,"title":138,"byline":139,"shortDescription":9,"tileImage":140,"mediaFormat":149,"mediaFocuses":151,"teamMember":153},[6,32,59],{"title":7,"byline":8,"shortDescription":9,"slug":10,"featuredImage":11,"tileImage":14,"mediaFormat":25,"mediaFocuses":27,"date":31},"American Ledger: A 250-Year Financial Perspective","By Ferguson Wellman","","american-ledger-a-250-year-financial-perspective",{"id":12,"alt":9,"caption":13,"assetUrl":13,"assetUrlXs":13,"assetUrlSm":13,"assetUrlMd":13,"assetUrlLg":13,"assetUrlXl":13,"assetUrlXxl":13,"width":13,"height":13},"1851",null,{"id":15,"alt":9,"caption":13,"assetUrl":16,"assetUrlXs":17,"assetUrlSm":18,"assetUrlMd":19,"assetUrlLg":20,"assetUrlXl":21,"assetUrlXxl":22,"width":23,"height":24},"1850","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1850/NoCat_Blog.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1850/xs_NoCat_Blog.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1850/sm_NoCat_Blog.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1850/md_NoCat_Blog.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1850/lg_NoCat_Blog.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1850/xl_NoCat_Blog.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1850/xxl_NoCat_Blog.jpg",700,330,{"name":26},"Articles",[28],{"name":29,"slug":30},"Weekly Market Makers","weekly-market-makers","2026-07-03",{"title":33,"byline":34,"shortDescription":9,"slug":35,"featuredImage":36,"tileImage":46,"mediaFormat":55,"mediaFocuses":56,"date":58},"Q2 in Review: Chips on the Table","By Peter Jones, CFA","q2-in-review-chips-on-the-table",{"id":37,"alt":9,"caption":13,"assetUrl":38,"assetUrlXs":39,"assetUrlSm":40,"assetUrlMd":41,"assetUrlLg":42,"assetUrlXl":43,"assetUrlXxl":44,"width":45,"height":45},"1844","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1844/Jones_Peter.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1844/xs_Jones_Peter.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1844/sm_Jones_Peter.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1844/md_Jones_Peter.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1844/lg_Jones_Peter.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1844/xl_Jones_Peter.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1844/xxl_Jones_Peter.jpg",1500,{"id":47,"alt":9,"caption":13,"assetUrl":48,"assetUrlXs":49,"assetUrlSm":50,"assetUrlMd":51,"assetUrlLg":52,"assetUrlXl":53,"assetUrlXxl":54,"width":23,"height":24},"1843","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1843/BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1843/xs_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1843/sm_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1843/md_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1843/lg_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1843/xl_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1843/xxl_BlogInvestment.jpg",{"name":26},[57],{"name":29,"slug":30},"2026-07-02",{"title":60,"byline":61,"shortDescription":9,"slug":62,"featuredImage":63,"tileImage":72,"mediaFormat":81,"mediaFocuses":82,"date":84},"The Price of Intelligence","By Alex Harding, CFA","the-price-of-intelligence",{"id":64,"alt":9,"caption":13,"assetUrl":65,"assetUrlXs":66,"assetUrlSm":67,"assetUrlMd":68,"assetUrlLg":69,"assetUrlXl":70,"assetUrlXxl":71,"width":45,"height":45},"1795","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1795/Harding_Alex.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1795/xs_Harding_Alex.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1795/sm_Harding_Alex.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1795/md_Harding_Alex.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1795/lg_Harding_Alex.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1795/xl_Harding_Alex.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1795/xxl_Harding_Alex.jpg",{"id":73,"alt":9,"caption":13,"assetUrl":74,"assetUrlXs":75,"assetUrlSm":76,"assetUrlMd":77,"assetUrlLg":78,"assetUrlXl":79,"assetUrlXxl":80,"width":23,"height":24},"1794","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1794/BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1794/xs_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1794/sm_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1794/md_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1794/lg_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1794/xl_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1794/xxl_BlogInvestment.jpg",{"name":26},[83],{"name":29,"slug":30},"2026-06-26","2024-12-27","The S&P 500 is going to finish 2024 with a return close to 30%. To have +20% returns in consecutive years is very uncommon.","Weekly Market Makers blog: Remember Tomorrow",{"id":89,"alt":90,"caption":13,"assetUrl":91,"assetUrlXs":92,"assetUrlSm":93,"assetUrlMd":94,"assetUrlLg":95,"assetUrlXl":96,"assetUrlXxl":97,"width":98,"height":99},"6","Ferguson Wellman Logo","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/6/FW-OpenGraph_2x.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/6/xs_FW-OpenGraph_2x.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/6/sm_FW-OpenGraph_2x.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/6/md_FW-OpenGraph_2x.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/6/lg_FW-OpenGraph_2x.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/6/xl_FW-OpenGraph_2x.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/6/xxl_FW-OpenGraph_2x.jpg",1200,630,[101,105,120,123,135],{"instance":102},{"__typename":103,"body":104},"MediaPageTextComponent","The S&P 500 is going to finish 2024 with a return *close to 30%*. This is coming off a year delivering 26% returns for investors. To have +20% returns in consecutive years is very uncommon. Below are the three periods when this occurred, but there is no clear pattern. ",{"instance":106},{"__typename":107,"image":108,"videoId":9,"caption":119},"MediaPageImageOrVideoWithCaptionComponent",{"id":109,"alt":9,"caption":13,"assetUrl":110,"assetUrlXs":111,"assetUrlSm":112,"assetUrlMd":113,"assetUrlLg":114,"assetUrlXl":115,"assetUrlXxl":116,"width":117,"height":118},"335","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/335/Sample_Size_of_Back-to-Back.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/335/xs_Sample_Size_of_Back-to-Back.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/335/sm_Sample_Size_of_Back-to-Back.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/335/md_Sample_Size_of_Back-to-Back.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/335/lg_Sample_Size_of_Back-to-Back.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/335/xl_Sample_Size_of_Back-to-Back.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/335/xxl_Sample_Size_of_Back-to-Back.jpg",1280,720,"Source: Strategas",{"instance":121},{"__typename":103,"body":122},"With such a small sample size, it’s impossible to identify any takeaways. Stock returns can take a “breather,” as we saw in 1937 and 1956, or continue a strong trend as investors experienced in the 1990s. Therefore, this data analysis does not help us forecast what may happen in 2025. \r\n\r\n What is important to investors is the fundamentals of the U.S. economy, which translates to corporate profit growth elevating equity prices. The U.S. economy is driven by the consumer who generally speaking, remains employed, is making record-level income and continues to spend. Mastercard reported holiday spending in 2024 rose close to 4%. With the resilience of the consumer, we continue to believe 2025 should remain a healthy year for spending.\r\n\r\n As we dust off our crystal ball for 2025, which we will soon present through our Outlook publication, webinar and events —we remain constructive. Should you feel nervous about the market based on its strength, remember that *stock prices follow profits*. \r\n\r\n Could investors see muted returns in 2025 as they digest recent strength? We believe so; however, the skew to equity markets has always been positive. The chart below shows the last 99 years of annual returns for the S&P 500. While the average over that period is approximately 10%, it’s rare to see returns close to that number. The market has returned between 8% and 12% only six times. In fact, stocks return over 20% have occurred 38% of the time, while they’ve been negative 25% in that same timeframe. ",{"instance":124},{"__typename":107,"image":125,"videoId":9,"caption":134},{"id":126,"alt":9,"caption":13,"assetUrl":127,"assetUrlXs":128,"assetUrlSm":129,"assetUrlMd":130,"assetUrlLg":131,"assetUrlXl":132,"assetUrlXxl":133,"width":117,"height":118},"336","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/336/Annual_Market_Returns_for_99_Years__1926-2024_.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/336/xs_Annual_Market_Returns_for_99_Years__1926-2024_.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/336/sm_Annual_Market_Returns_for_99_Years__1926-2024_.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/336/md_Annual_Market_Returns_for_99_Years__1926-2024_.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/336/lg_Annual_Market_Returns_for_99_Years__1926-2024_.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/336/xl_Annual_Market_Returns_for_99_Years__1926-2024_.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/336/xxl_Annual_Market_Returns_for_99_Years__1926-2024_.jpg","Source: FactSet and Ibbotson",{"instance":136},{"__typename":103,"body":137},"There is going to be considerable noise heading into 2025 with a new administration touting potentially bold policies. As with any changes on the horizon, we remind investors to step back, focus on the fundamentals of the economy and understand their *own long-term time horizon* when evaluating their exposure to the equity markets. Don’t forget—remember your tomorrow. \r\n\r\n**Takeaways for the Week**\r\n\r\n* Investors received a small gift this holiday week as stocks delivered a positive return, bringing forth headlines of a Santa Claus rally. With trading volumes very light, investors shouldn’t read too much into this as a signal for next year\r\n\r\n* Bond yields hit their highest level in over six months with the 10-year Treasury ending the week just under 4.6%. Rising yields have come from both good and bad instances: stronger economic growth, higher inflation and government deficits\r\n\r\n**Disclosure**\r\n\r\n*The views expressed represent the opinion of Ferguson Wellman. The views are subject to change and are not intended as a forecast or guarantee of future results. This material is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice and is not intended as an endorsement of any specific investment. Statements of future expectations, estimates, projections and other forward-looking statements are based on available information and Ferguson Wellman’s views as of the time of these statements. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Ferguson Wellman, Octavia Group and West Bearing do not provide tax, legal, insurance or medical advice. This material has been prepared for general educational purposes only and not as a substitute for qualified counsel who can determine how this information applies to you. We believe the information provided is from reliable sources but should not be assumed accurate or complete.\r\n\r\nPlease see additional [disclosures](/disclosures/)*.","Remember Tomorrow","By Jason Norris, CFA",{"id":141,"alt":9,"caption":13,"assetUrl":142,"assetUrlXs":143,"assetUrlSm":144,"assetUrlMd":145,"assetUrlLg":146,"assetUrlXl":147,"assetUrlXxl":148,"width":23,"height":24},"333","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/333/BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/333/xs_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/333/sm_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/333/md_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/333/lg_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/333/xl_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/333/xxl_BlogInvestment.jpg",{"name":26,"slug":150},"articles",[152],{"name":29,"slug":30},{"fullName":154,"title":155,"slug":156,"image":157},"Jason Norris, CFA","Director","jason-norris",{"id":158,"alt":159,"caption":13,"assetUrl":160,"assetUrlXs":161,"assetUrlSm":162,"assetUrlMd":163,"assetUrlLg":164,"assetUrlXl":165,"assetUrlXxl":166,"width":45,"height":45},"264","Headshot of Jason Norris","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/264/Norris_Jason.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/264/xs_Norris_Jason.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/264/sm_Norris_Jason.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/264/md_Norris_Jason.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/264/lg_Norris_Jason.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/264/xl_Norris_Jason.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/264/xxl_Norris_Jason.jpg",1783541871693]