[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":149},["ShallowReactive",2],{"gql:data:RpDPKjHjPDMTdlb1DTIiGDypqUfBcT7JNJz87H7iH1E":3},{"mediaItem":4},{"relatedItems":5,"date":85,"derivedSeoDescription":13,"derivedSeoTitle":86,"derivedSocialMediaDescription":13,"derivedSocialMediaImage":87,"derivedSocialMediaTitle":86,"flexComponents":99,"author":9,"title":121,"byline":122,"shortDescription":9,"tileImage":123,"mediaFormat":132,"mediaFocuses":134,"teamMember":136},[6,40,59],{"title":7,"byline":8,"shortDescription":9,"slug":10,"featuredImage":11,"tileImage":22,"mediaFormat":33,"mediaFocuses":35,"date":39},"Countdown to Year End","By Jason 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| Memory is King | Ferguson Wellman",{"id":88,"alt":89,"caption":13,"assetUrl":90,"assetUrlXs":91,"assetUrlSm":92,"assetUrlMd":93,"assetUrlLg":94,"assetUrlXl":95,"assetUrlXxl":96,"width":97,"height":98},"6","Ferguson Wellman Logo","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/6/FW-OpenGraph_2x.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/6/xs_FW-OpenGraph_2x.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/6/sm_FW-OpenGraph_2x.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/6/md_FW-OpenGraph_2x.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/6/lg_FW-OpenGraph_2x.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/6/xl_FW-OpenGraph_2x.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/6/xxl_FW-OpenGraph_2x.jpg",1200,630,[100,104,118],{"instance":101},{"__typename":102,"body":103},"MediaPageTextComponent","Every so often, the market hands us a single tape that crystallizes a trend we’ve been seeing for months. This week, IBM pre-announced their quarterly results ahead of its scheduled report next week, with its results coming in below consensus expectations. The numbers themselves were only modestly light – roughly $17.2 billion in revenue against expectations near $17.86 billion, and adjusted earnings of $2.93 per share versus consensus around $3.01. A revenue miss of under 4% would not normally shake a $200-billion-plus enterprise franchise to its foundation. But in today’s AI-fearing software space, it’s a disaster. The company’s CEO admitted that it “faltered” and did not provide guidance on the rest of the year. As expected, investors sold off the name and shares fell more than 25% on Wednesday, making it IBM’s worst day in records that go back to 1968. \r\n\r\nThe reason why IBM came up short was likely due to its customers reprioritizing their capital budgets and redirecting spending away from software, consulting and mainframe products toward servers, storage, and critically important memory. Corporate buyers are rushing to lock down supply-constrained hardware for their AI infrastructure, several large deals that IBM expected to close didn’t, and its mainframe business lapped a tough comparison from last year’s launch.  \r\n\r\nWe also see a clear free cash flow trend. While hyperscalers are spending a significant amount of their cash flows to build out AI capabilities, memory names are raking in the cash. In fact, we see a stark divergence between these two groups.",{"instance":105},{"__typename":106,"image":107,"videoId":9,"caption":9},"MediaPageImageOrVideoWithCaptionComponent",{"id":108,"alt":9,"caption":13,"assetUrl":109,"assetUrlXs":110,"assetUrlSm":111,"assetUrlMd":112,"assetUrlLg":113,"assetUrlXl":114,"assetUrlXxl":115,"width":116,"height":117},"1917","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1917/BlogChart.png","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1917/xs_BlogChart.png","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1917/sm_BlogChart.png","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1917/md_BlogChart.png","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1917/lg_BlogChart.png","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1917/xl_BlogChart.png","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1917/xxl_BlogChart.png",2090,1719,{"instance":119},{"__typename":102,"body":120},"For most of the past decade, memory chips were treated as commodities – cheap and abundant. However, AI requires advanced capabilities, and every stack diverted to an AI server directly starves the supply of ordinary memory. The result has been the tightest memory market in well over a decade, and memory prices are soaring. Industry leaders have described their capacity as effectively sold out for 2026 under multi-year agreements.  \r\n\r\n**The Rest of the Tape** \r\n\r\nAside from the IBM story, it was a busy week, and much of the news cut the other way. \r\n\r\nMarkets opened the week on the back foot. Monday saw broad selling, the Nasdaq fell more than 1.5% and semiconductors dropped nearly 5%, as renewed tension around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices up roughly 9%. Energy shocks and rising rates are rarely a friendly combination for growth stocks and equities in general. \r\n\r\nTuesday brought welcome relief on the inflation front. June's Consumer Price Index came in cooler than expected, with headline inflation easing to 3.5% and prices declining 0.4% month over month, the largest one-month drop since April 2020. Softer inflation revived hopes that the Federal Reserve, now led by newly confirmed Chair Kevin Warsh, has room to be less restrictive. Warsh made his first congressional appearance as chair the same day. The banks also kicked off earnings season on a strong note, with Goldman Sachs jumping roughly 9% on a clear beat and JPMorgan and Bank of America both adding around 2%. Even with IBM dragging on sentiment, the broad indexes finished Tuesday higher, a testament to how much the inflation print and bank results mattered. \r\n\r\nThe rest of the week turned to a heavy slate of corporate reports and June retail sales, with results from Netflix, UnitedHealth, Johnson & Johnson and GE Aerospace giving investors a fuller read on how corporate America is navigating a high-rate, AI-reordered economy. Generally, business fundamentals are holding up well, but companies with elevated valuations leave no room for disappointing, or even “fine,” results. Good results from growth companies are often met with muted reactions, while even modest upward guidance revisions are punished. \r\n \r\n\r\n**Takeaways For the Week:** \r\n\r\n* Memory continues to be the AI infrastructure bottleneck. IBM's disappointing quarter highlighted a broader capital spending shift as enterprise customers redirect budgets away from software and consulting toward AI hardware, particularly high-bandwidth memory. With supply effectively sold out into 2026, memory remains one of the strongest beneficiaries of the AI buildout.  \r\n\r\n* Markets balanced AI concerns against improving macro data. While geopolitical tensions and IBM's sharp selloff pressured technology stocks early in the week, cooler-than-expected inflation, strong bank earnings, and optimism around a less restrictive Federal Reserve helped stabilize sentiment as earnings season gained momentum. \r\n\r\n**Disclosure**\r\n\r\n*The views expressed represent the opinion of Ferguson Wellman. The views are subject to change and are not intended as a forecast or guarantee of future results. This material is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice and is not intended as an endorsement of any specific investment. Statements of future expectations, estimates, projections and other forward-looking statements are based on available information and Ferguson Wellman’s views as of the time of these statements. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Ferguson Wellman, Octavia Group and West Bearing do not provide tax, legal, insurance or medical advice. This material has been prepared for general educational purposes only and not as a substitute for qualified counsel who can determine how this information applies to you. We believe the information provided is from reliable sources but should not be assumed accurate or complete.*\r\n\r\n*Please see additional [disclosures](/disclosures/)*.","Memory is King","By Krystal Daibes Higgins",{"id":124,"alt":9,"caption":13,"assetUrl":125,"assetUrlXs":126,"assetUrlSm":127,"assetUrlMd":128,"assetUrlLg":129,"assetUrlXl":130,"assetUrlXxl":131,"width":31,"height":32},"1915","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1915/_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1915/xs__BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1915/sm__BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1915/md__BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1915/lg__BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1915/xl__BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1915/xxl__BlogInvestment.jpg",{"name":34,"slug":133},"articles",[135],{"name":37,"slug":38},{"fullName":137,"title":138,"slug":139,"image":140},"Krystal Daibes Higgins","Senior Vice President","krystal-daibes-higgins",{"id":141,"alt":9,"caption":13,"assetUrl":142,"assetUrlXs":143,"assetUrlSm":144,"assetUrlMd":145,"assetUrlLg":146,"assetUrlXl":147,"assetUrlXxl":148,"width":21,"height":21},"228","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/228/Higgins_Krystal.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/228/xs_Higgins_Krystal.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/228/sm_Higgins_Krystal.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/228/md_Higgins_Krystal.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/228/lg_Higgins_Krystal.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/228/xl_Higgins_Krystal.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/228/xxl_Higgins_Krystal.jpg",1784326191246]