[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":182},["ShallowReactive",2],{"gql:data:t_sP_dAAuznGed3f0p8qrSf-oIjGklnVn_xHaw4sFiY":3},{"mediaItem":4},{"relatedItems":5,"date":85,"derivedSeoDescription":13,"derivedSeoTitle":86,"derivedSocialMediaDescription":13,"derivedSocialMediaImage":87,"derivedSocialMediaTitle":86,"flexComponents":99,"author":9,"title":153,"byline":154,"shortDescription":9,"tileImage":155,"mediaFormat":164,"mediaFocuses":166,"teamMember":168},[6,32,59],{"title":7,"byline":8,"shortDescription":9,"slug":10,"featuredImage":11,"tileImage":14,"mediaFormat":25,"mediaFocuses":27,"date":31},"American Ledger: A 250-Year Financial Perspective","By Ferguson Wellman","","american-ledger-a-250-year-financial-perspective",{"id":12,"alt":9,"caption":13,"assetUrl":13,"assetUrlXs":13,"assetUrlSm":13,"assetUrlMd":13,"assetUrlLg":13,"assetUrlXl":13,"assetUrlXxl":13,"width":13,"height":13},"1851",null,{"id":15,"alt":9,"caption":13,"assetUrl":16,"assetUrlXs":17,"assetUrlSm":18,"assetUrlMd":19,"assetUrlLg":20,"assetUrlXl":21,"assetUrlXxl":22,"width":23,"height":24},"1850","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1850/NoCat_Blog.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1850/xs_NoCat_Blog.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1850/sm_NoCat_Blog.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1850/md_NoCat_Blog.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1850/lg_NoCat_Blog.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1850/xl_NoCat_Blog.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1850/xxl_NoCat_Blog.jpg",700,330,{"name":26},"Articles",[28],{"name":29,"slug":30},"Weekly Market Makers","weekly-market-makers","2026-07-03",{"title":33,"byline":34,"shortDescription":9,"slug":35,"featuredImage":36,"tileImage":46,"mediaFormat":55,"mediaFocuses":56,"date":58},"Q2 in Review: Chips on the Table","By Peter Jones, CFA","q2-in-review-chips-on-the-table",{"id":37,"alt":9,"caption":13,"assetUrl":38,"assetUrlXs":39,"assetUrlSm":40,"assetUrlMd":41,"assetUrlLg":42,"assetUrlXl":43,"assetUrlXxl":44,"width":45,"height":45},"1844","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1844/Jones_Peter.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1844/xs_Jones_Peter.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1844/sm_Jones_Peter.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1844/md_Jones_Peter.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1844/lg_Jones_Peter.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1844/xl_Jones_Peter.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1844/xxl_Jones_Peter.jpg",1500,{"id":47,"alt":9,"caption":13,"assetUrl":48,"assetUrlXs":49,"assetUrlSm":50,"assetUrlMd":51,"assetUrlLg":52,"assetUrlXl":53,"assetUrlXxl":54,"width":23,"height":24},"1843","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1843/BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1843/xs_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1843/sm_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1843/md_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1843/lg_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1843/xl_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1843/xxl_BlogInvestment.jpg",{"name":26},[57],{"name":29,"slug":30},"2026-07-02",{"title":60,"byline":61,"shortDescription":9,"slug":62,"featuredImage":63,"tileImage":72,"mediaFormat":81,"mediaFocuses":82,"date":84},"The Price of Intelligence","By Alex Harding, CFA","the-price-of-intelligence",{"id":64,"alt":9,"caption":13,"assetUrl":65,"assetUrlXs":66,"assetUrlSm":67,"assetUrlMd":68,"assetUrlLg":69,"assetUrlXl":70,"assetUrlXxl":71,"width":45,"height":45},"1795","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1795/Harding_Alex.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1795/xs_Harding_Alex.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1795/sm_Harding_Alex.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1795/md_Harding_Alex.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1795/lg_Harding_Alex.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1795/xl_Harding_Alex.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1795/xxl_Harding_Alex.jpg",{"id":73,"alt":9,"caption":13,"assetUrl":74,"assetUrlXs":75,"assetUrlSm":76,"assetUrlMd":77,"assetUrlLg":78,"assetUrlXl":79,"assetUrlXxl":80,"width":23,"height":24},"1794","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1794/BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1794/xs_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1794/sm_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1794/md_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1794/lg_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1794/xl_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1794/xxl_BlogInvestment.jpg",{"name":26},[83],{"name":29,"slug":30},"2026-06-26","2025-08-08","Resources | Changes | Ferguson Wellman",{"id":88,"alt":89,"caption":13,"assetUrl":90,"assetUrlXs":91,"assetUrlSm":92,"assetUrlMd":93,"assetUrlLg":94,"assetUrlXl":95,"assetUrlXxl":96,"width":97,"height":98},"6","Ferguson Wellman Logo","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/6/FW-OpenGraph_2x.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/6/xs_FW-OpenGraph_2x.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/6/sm_FW-OpenGraph_2x.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/6/md_FW-OpenGraph_2x.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/6/lg_FW-OpenGraph_2x.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/6/xl_FW-OpenGraph_2x.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/6/xxl_FW-OpenGraph_2x.jpg",1200,630,[100,104,118,121,134,137,150],{"instance":101},{"__typename":102,"body":103},"MediaPageTextComponent","Over the last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released several data points highlighting some weakness in the jobs market. On Friday, August 1, the BLS reported only 73,000 new jobs were created in July, with revisions showing 258,000 fewer jobs created than initially reported in the last few months. So, what happened?  \r\n\r\nThe BLS releases this employment report the first Friday of every month and the data reported is from both businesses and households. The unemployment rate is determined by a survey of 60,000 households while the jobs gained/lost rate is determined from a survey of 121,000 businesses. According to Goldman Sachs, revisions for the number of jobs gained/lost occur, primarily, for the following reasons: \r\n\r\n* Historically, only 60% of respondents report their results before the monthly release, with those being the numbers reported in the release. The remaining respondents’ answers contribute to the revisions.\r\n\r\n* Late responders are more likely to be firms under economic pressure, especially if the economy is slowing.\r\n\r\n* There are annual revisions once the data is reconciled with state unemployment records. The average monthly revision is about 60,000 - the revisions for June and May were 133,000 and 120,000 respectively. These drops were comparable to what we saw in 2008 as well as throughout the 1980s (the revisions during the COVID–19 pandemic were double those).\r\n\r\n* The number of respondents has dropped meaningfully since the pandemic (see below).",{"instance":105},{"__typename":106,"image":107,"videoId":9,"caption":9},"MediaPageImageOrVideoWithCaptionComponent",{"id":108,"alt":9,"caption":13,"assetUrl":109,"assetUrlXs":110,"assetUrlSm":111,"assetUrlMd":112,"assetUrlLg":113,"assetUrlXl":114,"assetUrlXxl":115,"width":116,"height":117},"1161","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1161/Chart_Aug8blog.png","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1161/xs_Chart_Aug8blog.png","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1161/sm_Chart_Aug8blog.png","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1161/md_Chart_Aug8blog.png","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1161/lg_Chart_Aug8blog.png","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1161/xl_Chart_Aug8blog.png","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1161/xxl_Chart_Aug8blog.png",2219,1601,{"instance":119},{"__typename":102,"body":120},"According to the San Francisco Fed, even with the drop in the initial response rates, data revisions have not seen a significant increase relative to history. The question that remains is whether this is an anomaly or a new pattern. One point that highlights a lack of concern with the data is the bond market. If market participants questioned the data, then yields on treasuries would have risen. Instead, they fell due to concerns over economic growth.\r\n\r\nThis brings us to how the Ferguson Wellman Investment Policy Committee (IPC) assesses the health of the labor market. The chart below shows monthly company layoffs data from the monthly JOLTs (Job Openings, Lost, Turnover) report which indicates that companies are laying off fewer workers than before the pandemic. This data is supported by the weekly unemployment claims data that is released every Thursday.",{"instance":122},{"__typename":106,"image":123,"videoId":9,"caption":9},{"id":124,"alt":9,"caption":13,"assetUrl":125,"assetUrlXs":126,"assetUrlSm":127,"assetUrlMd":128,"assetUrlLg":129,"assetUrlXl":130,"assetUrlXxl":131,"width":132,"height":133},"1162","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1162/Screenshot%2b2025-08-08%2b104205.jpeg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1162/xs_Screenshot%2b2025-08-08%2b104205.jpeg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1162/sm_Screenshot%2b2025-08-08%2b104205.jpeg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1162/md_Screenshot%2b2025-08-08%2b104205.jpeg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1162/lg_Screenshot%2b2025-08-08%2b104205.jpeg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1162/xl_Screenshot%2b2025-08-08%2b104205.jpeg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1162/xxl_Screenshot%2b2025-08-08%2b104205.jpeg",1414,754,{"instance":135},{"__typename":102,"body":136},"IPC uses the weekly claims data since it gives a better “real time” view of the labor market. What is highlighted below is that initial claims for unemployment continue to rest at historic lows (and this data set does not adjust for the size of the labor force).",{"instance":138},{"__typename":106,"image":139,"videoId":9,"caption":9},{"id":140,"alt":9,"caption":13,"assetUrl":141,"assetUrlXs":142,"assetUrlSm":143,"assetUrlMd":144,"assetUrlLg":145,"assetUrlXl":146,"assetUrlXxl":147,"width":148,"height":149},"1163","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1163/Screenshot_2025-08-07_175846.png","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1163/xs_Screenshot_2025-08-07_175846.png","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1163/sm_Screenshot_2025-08-07_175846.png","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1163/md_Screenshot_2025-08-07_175846.png","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1163/lg_Screenshot_2025-08-07_175846.png","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1163/xl_Screenshot_2025-08-07_175846.png","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1163/xxl_Screenshot_2025-08-07_175846.png",712,514,{"instance":151},{"__typename":102,"body":152},"There are two reasons we favor this data series, first the timeliness, and second, this data comes directly from each individual state’s unemployment insurance offices rather than survey responses.  \r\n\r\nOur view of the labor market is that companies (in general) are leery of investing in new workers due to economic/tariff uncertainty, thus a slowdown in new jobs. However, companies are confident enough in their business outlook that they do not have to make major reductions in their workforce.  \r\n\r\n**Takeaways for the Week:**\r\n\r\n* Stocks finished the week higher as corporate earnings continued to deliver results above expectations. The S&P 500 rallied 2%, bringing the year-to-date return to 9%\r\n\r\n* Second quarter earnings growth is expected to be over 10%, twice as much as analysts originally expected a month ago\r\n\r\n**Disclosure**\r\n\r\n*The views expressed represent the opinion of Ferguson Wellman. The views are subject to change and are not intended as a forecast or guarantee of future results. This material is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice and is not intended as an endorsement of any specific investment. Statements of future expectations, estimates, projections and other forward-looking statements are based on available information and Ferguson Wellman’s views as of the time of these statements. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Ferguson Wellman, Octavia Group and West Bearing do not provide tax, legal, insurance or medical advice. This material has been prepared for general educational purposes only and not as a substitute for qualified counsel who can determine how this information applies to you. We believe the information provided is from reliable sources but should not be assumed accurate or complete.\r\n\r\nPlease see additional [disclosures](/disclosures/).*","Changes","By Jason Norris, CFA",{"id":156,"alt":9,"caption":13,"assetUrl":157,"assetUrlXs":158,"assetUrlSm":159,"assetUrlMd":160,"assetUrlLg":161,"assetUrlXl":162,"assetUrlXxl":163,"width":23,"height":24},"1159","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1159/BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1159/xs_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1159/sm_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1159/md_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1159/lg_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1159/xl_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1159/xxl_BlogInvestment.jpg",{"name":26,"slug":165},"articles",[167],{"name":29,"slug":30},{"fullName":169,"title":170,"slug":171,"image":172},"Jason Norris, CFA","Director","jason-norris",{"id":173,"alt":174,"caption":13,"assetUrl":175,"assetUrlXs":176,"assetUrlSm":177,"assetUrlMd":178,"assetUrlLg":179,"assetUrlXl":180,"assetUrlXxl":181,"width":45,"height":45},"264","Headshot of Jason Norris","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/264/Norris_Jason.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/264/xs_Norris_Jason.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/264/sm_Norris_Jason.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/264/md_Norris_Jason.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/264/lg_Norris_Jason.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/264/xl_Norris_Jason.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/264/xxl_Norris_Jason.jpg",1783541865545]