[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":149},["ShallowReactive",2],{"gql:data:sKoWCFa2ZdatUd0J5MdHWO1qThtBBzYKv44o2DV1sno":3},{"mediaItem":4},{"relatedItems":5,"date":85,"derivedSeoDescription":13,"derivedSeoTitle":86,"derivedSocialMediaDescription":13,"derivedSocialMediaImage":87,"derivedSocialMediaTitle":86,"flexComponents":99,"author":9,"title":121,"byline":122,"shortDescription":9,"tileImage":123,"mediaFormat":132,"mediaFocuses":134,"teamMember":136},[6,32,59],{"title":7,"byline":8,"shortDescription":9,"slug":10,"featuredImage":11,"tileImage":14,"mediaFormat":25,"mediaFocuses":27,"date":31},"American Ledger: A 250-Year Financial Perspective","By Ferguson Wellman","","american-ledger-a-250-year-financial-perspective",{"id":12,"alt":9,"caption":13,"assetUrl":13,"assetUrlXs":13,"assetUrlSm":13,"assetUrlMd":13,"assetUrlLg":13,"assetUrlXl":13,"assetUrlXxl":13,"width":13,"height":13},"1851",null,{"id":15,"alt":9,"caption":13,"assetUrl":16,"assetUrlXs":17,"assetUrlSm":18,"assetUrlMd":19,"assetUrlLg":20,"assetUrlXl":21,"assetUrlXxl":22,"width":23,"height":24},"1850","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1850/NoCat_Blog.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1850/xs_NoCat_Blog.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1850/sm_NoCat_Blog.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1850/md_NoCat_Blog.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1850/lg_NoCat_Blog.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1850/xl_NoCat_Blog.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1850/xxl_NoCat_Blog.jpg",700,330,{"name":26},"Articles",[28],{"name":29,"slug":30},"Weekly Market Makers","weekly-market-makers","2026-07-03",{"title":33,"byline":34,"shortDescription":9,"slug":35,"featuredImage":36,"tileImage":46,"mediaFormat":55,"mediaFocuses":56,"date":58},"Q2 in Review: Chips on the Table","By Peter Jones, CFA","q2-in-review-chips-on-the-table",{"id":37,"alt":9,"caption":13,"assetUrl":38,"assetUrlXs":39,"assetUrlSm":40,"assetUrlMd":41,"assetUrlLg":42,"assetUrlXl":43,"assetUrlXxl":44,"width":45,"height":45},"1844","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1844/Jones_Peter.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1844/xs_Jones_Peter.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1844/sm_Jones_Peter.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1844/md_Jones_Peter.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1844/lg_Jones_Peter.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1844/xl_Jones_Peter.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1844/xxl_Jones_Peter.jpg",1500,{"id":47,"alt":9,"caption":13,"assetUrl":48,"assetUrlXs":49,"assetUrlSm":50,"assetUrlMd":51,"assetUrlLg":52,"assetUrlXl":53,"assetUrlXxl":54,"width":23,"height":24},"1843","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1843/BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1843/xs_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1843/sm_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1843/md_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1843/lg_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1843/xl_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1843/xxl_BlogInvestment.jpg",{"name":26},[57],{"name":29,"slug":30},"2026-07-02",{"title":60,"byline":61,"shortDescription":9,"slug":62,"featuredImage":63,"tileImage":72,"mediaFormat":81,"mediaFocuses":82,"date":84},"The Price of Intelligence","By Alex Harding, CFA","the-price-of-intelligence",{"id":64,"alt":9,"caption":13,"assetUrl":65,"assetUrlXs":66,"assetUrlSm":67,"assetUrlMd":68,"assetUrlLg":69,"assetUrlXl":70,"assetUrlXxl":71,"width":45,"height":45},"1795","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1795/Harding_Alex.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1795/xs_Harding_Alex.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1795/sm_Harding_Alex.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1795/md_Harding_Alex.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1795/lg_Harding_Alex.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1795/xl_Harding_Alex.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1795/xxl_Harding_Alex.jpg",{"id":73,"alt":9,"caption":13,"assetUrl":74,"assetUrlXs":75,"assetUrlSm":76,"assetUrlMd":77,"assetUrlLg":78,"assetUrlXl":79,"assetUrlXxl":80,"width":23,"height":24},"1794","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1794/BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1794/xs_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1794/sm_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1794/md_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1794/lg_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1794/xl_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1794/xxl_BlogInvestment.jpg",{"name":26},[83],{"name":29,"slug":30},"2026-06-26","2020-01-10","Resources | Back To The Basics | Ferguson Wellman",{"id":88,"alt":89,"caption":13,"assetUrl":90,"assetUrlXs":91,"assetUrlSm":92,"assetUrlMd":93,"assetUrlLg":94,"assetUrlXl":95,"assetUrlXxl":96,"width":97,"height":98},"6","Ferguson Wellman Logo","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/6/FW-OpenGraph_2x.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/6/xs_FW-OpenGraph_2x.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/6/sm_FW-OpenGraph_2x.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/6/md_FW-OpenGraph_2x.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/6/lg_FW-OpenGraph_2x.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/6/xl_FW-OpenGraph_2x.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/6/xxl_FW-OpenGraph_2x.jpg",1200,630,[100,104,118],{"instance":101},{"__typename":102,"body":103},"MediaPageTextComponent","With stocks, only two things matter: earnings and what investors are willing to pay for a dollar of earnings. Reducing equity investing to these two variables should make forecasting the stock market relatively simple; however, the two variables are influenced by an almost infinite number of factors. \r\n\r\nFollowing last year’s more-than 30 percent gain in the stock market, clients are naturally wondering what is next in 2020. It is not a heroic prediction to indicate that this year will probably not be as good as last year. In addition, we are closer to the end of the economic cycle than we are the beginning. It is, however, too early to get overly defensive and go underweight stocks. We continue to recommend a neutral weighting to stocks. For example, if a client has investment guidelines for large company stocks that are between 25 percent to 65 percent then the neutral weighting in large company stocks should be right in the middle at 45 percent. That being said, we have been reducing risk within client portfolios by starting to emphasize investments in economic sectors that are less cyclical.\r\n\r\nLooking more closely at the valuation of the stock market it can be described as not being inexpensive. However, it is by no means at nosebleed price levels with a price-to-earnings multiple of 18x next year’s earnings. This means that investors are willing to pay 18x for each dollar of earnings of the stock market. The higher this number, the more expensive the market is perceived to be. The long-term average of the price-to-earnings multiple is 16x. Last year, almost 80 percent of the more than 30 percent increase in the stock market was attributable to multiple expansion, or, said another way, what investors were willing to pay for a dollar of earnings. One of the largest contributors to investors willing to pay more for earnings was a sharp drop in interest rates that made risk assets like stocks more attractive investments. We believe it is unlikely for investors to be willing to pay substantially more for a dollar of stock market earnings in 2020. ",{"instance":105},{"__typename":106,"image":107,"videoId":9,"caption":9},"MediaPageImageOrVideoWithCaptionComponent",{"id":108,"alt":9,"caption":13,"assetUrl":109,"assetUrlXs":110,"assetUrlSm":111,"assetUrlMd":112,"assetUrlLg":113,"assetUrlXl":114,"assetUrlXxl":115,"width":116,"height":117},"1284","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1284/Valuation%2bChart.webp","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1284/xs_Valuation%2bChart.webp","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1284/sm_Valuation%2bChart.webp","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1284/md_Valuation%2bChart.webp","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1284/lg_Valuation%2bChart.webp","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1284/xl_Valuation%2bChart.webp","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1284/xxl_Valuation%2bChart.webp",960,720,{"instance":119},{"__typename":102,"body":120},"Earning growth is the second piece to the puzzle in determining what the stock market will do in 2020. In 2018, earning growth was more than 20 percent due in part to the changes in corporate taxes. For the full year of 2019 earnings were projected to grow about 1.9 percent due to continued, but slower, global economic growth. The Wall Street consensus for earnings growth in 2020 is currently 9 percent, which we view as overly optimistic. In reality, we believe full year 2020 earnings growth is more likely to be around 4 percent. \r\n\r\nThis backdrop of a full valuation in stocks and muted earnings growth leaves us in an environment for unexciting single-digit stock returns. However, with no recession on the horizon, it is still too early to get defensive and go underweight stocks. \r\n\r\nToday, the December jobs report came in at a little below expectations, yet the six-month average number of jobs created continues to be robust. Unemployment remains at 3.5 percent, the lowest in 50 years. For 2020, the stock market is up 1.5 percent, near an all-time high.\r\n\r\n**Week in Review and Our Takeaways**\r\n\r\n* With stocks, two things matter, earnings and what investors are willing to pay for a dollar of earnings\r\n\r\n* The stock market is not inexpensive on a valuation basis and projected earnings growth does not look robust. However, we don’t see a change in the economic cycle that would warrant being underweight stocks\r\n\r\n**Disclosure**\r\n\r\n*The views expressed represent the opinion of Ferguson Wellman. The views are subject to change and are not intended as a forecast or guarantee of future results. This material is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice and is not intended as an endorsement of any specific investment. Statements of future expectations, estimates, projections and other forward-looking statements are based on available information and Ferguson Wellman’s views as of the time of these statements. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Ferguson Wellman, Octavia Group and West Bearing do not provide tax, legal, insurance or medical advice. This material has been prepared for general educational purposes only and not as a substitute for qualified counsel who can determine how this information applies to you. We believe the information provided is from reliable sources but should not be assumed accurate or complete.*\r\n\r\n*Please see additional [disclosures](/disclosures/).*\r\n","Back To The Basics","By Brad Houle, CFA",{"id":124,"alt":9,"caption":13,"assetUrl":125,"assetUrlXs":126,"assetUrlSm":127,"assetUrlMd":128,"assetUrlLg":129,"assetUrlXl":130,"assetUrlXxl":131,"width":23,"height":24},"1282","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1282/BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1282/xs_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1282/sm_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1282/md_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1282/lg_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1282/xl_BlogInvestment.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/1282/xxl_BlogInvestment.jpg",{"name":26,"slug":133},"articles",[135],{"name":29,"slug":30},{"fullName":137,"title":138,"slug":139,"image":140},"Brad Houle, CFA","Head of Fixed Income","brad-houle",{"id":141,"alt":9,"caption":13,"assetUrl":142,"assetUrlXs":143,"assetUrlSm":144,"assetUrlMd":145,"assetUrlLg":146,"assetUrlXl":147,"assetUrlXxl":148,"width":45,"height":45},"236","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/236/Houle_Brad.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/236/xs_Houle_Brad.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/236/sm_Houle_Brad.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/236/md_Houle_Brad.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/236/lg_Houle_Brad.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/236/xl_Houle_Brad.jpg","https://www.fergusonwellman.com/system/uploads/fae/image/asset/236/xxl_Houle_Brad.jpg",1783541896063]